Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2014-08-05 | 2014-12-26 | 101 | $16.75 | $25.83 | +54.2% | +194.7% | +8.8% | +45.4% |
| Drawdown | 2014-12-26 | 2015-02-09 | 30 | $25.83 | $18.95 | -26.6% | -92.6% | -2.0% | -24.6% |
| Rally | 2015-02-09 | 2015-11-11 | 193 | $18.95 | $34.96 | +84.5% | +122.5% | +1.4% | +83.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-11 | 2016-02-05 | 59 | $34.96 | $15.87 | -54.6% | -96.6% | -9.4% | -45.2% |
| Rally | 2016-02-05 | 2016-10-10 | 172 | $15.87 | $38.44 | +142.2% | +265.5% | +15.1% | +127.1% |
| Drawdown | 2016-10-10 | 2016-11-04 | 20 | $38.44 | $30.70 | -20.1% | -94.1% | -3.6% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2016-11-04 | 2017-06-08 | 148 | $30.70 | $54.47 | +77.4% | +165.5% | +16.7% | +60.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-06-08 | 2017-08-28 | 57 | $54.47 | $40.60 | -25.5% | -72.7% | +0.4% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2017-08-28 | 2018-11-07 | 303 | $40.60 | $100.44 | +147.4% | +112.4% | +15.1% | +132.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-07 | 2019-01-08 | 41 | $100.44 | $52.86 | -47.4% | -98.1% | -8.5% | -38.9% |
| Rally | 2019-01-08 | 2019-03-19 | 49 | $52.86 | $84.51 | +59.9% | +1,016.9% | +10.0% | +49.8% |
| Drawdown | 2019-03-19 | 2019-06-26 | 70 | $84.51 | $62.18 | -26.4% | -66.9% | +2.9% | -29.3% |
| Rally | 2019-06-26 | 2019-07-31 | 25 | $62.18 | $81.98 | +31.8% | +1,522.5% | +2.3% | +29.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-31 | 2019-10-10 | 51 | $81.98 | $51.99 | -36.6% | -89.5% | -1.4% | -35.2% |
| Rally | 2019-10-10 | 2020-02-21 | 92 | $51.99 | $87.73 | +68.7% | +319.2% | +13.6% | +55.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-21 | 2020-03-18 | 19 | $87.73 | $40.54 | -53.8% | -100.0% | -28.2% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-03-26 | 7 | $40.54 | $56.42 | +39.2% | +14,715,438.1% | +9.7% | +29.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-26 | 2020-04-03 | 7 | $56.42 | $41.09 | -27.2% | -100.0% | -5.4% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2020-04-03 | 2020-06-08 | 45 | $41.09 | $67.57 | +64.4% | +1,520.7% | +29.9% | +34.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-08-04 | 41 | $67.57 | $51.12 | -24.3% | -82.0% | +2.3% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2020-08-04 | 2020-09-09 | 26 | $51.12 | $61.64 | +20.6% | +513.4% | +2.8% | +17.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-09-09 | 2020-09-24 | 12 | $61.64 | $46.15 | -25.1% | -99.8% | -4.5% | -20.6% |
| Rally | 2020-09-24 | 2021-01-26 | 85 | $46.15 | $91.01 | +97.2% | +648.8% | +18.6% | +78.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-01-26 | 2021-04-07 | 50 | $91.01 | $66.24 | -27.2% | -79.8% | +6.0% | -33.2% |
| Rally | 2021-04-07 | 2021-06-02 | 40 | $66.24 | $84.60 | +27.7% | +367.1% | +3.1% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-02 | 2021-12-20 | 141 | $84.60 | $39.52 | -53.3% | -74.3% | +8.6% | -61.8% |
| Rally | 2021-12-20 | 2022-04-20 | 84 | $39.52 | $71.62 | +81.2% | +495.2% | -2.4% | +83.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-20 | 2022-05-11 | 16 | $71.62 | $54.14 | -24.4% | -98.8% | -11.8% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2022-05-11 | 2022-11-01 | 121 | $54.14 | $78.50 | +45.0% | +116.8% | -2.0% | +47.0% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-01 | 2023-05-03 | 126 | $78.50 | $51.02 | -35.0% | -57.8% | +6.1% | -41.1% |
| Rally | 2023-05-03 | 2024-06-10 | 278 | $51.02 | $86.94 | +70.4% | +62.1% | +31.0% | +39.4% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-10 | 2024-08-05 | 39 | $86.94 | $67.98 | -21.8% | -79.6% | -3.3% | -18.6% |
| Rally | 2024-08-05 | 2025-02-12 | 132 | $67.98 | $114.51 | +68.4% | +170.6% | +16.7% | +51.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-12 | 2025-04-08 | 39 | $114.51 | $76.77 | -33.0% | -92.5% | -17.7% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-06-04 | 40 | $76.77 | $113.06 | +47.3% | +1,045.9% | +19.8% | +27.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-04 | 2025-08-25 | 57 | $113.06 | $87.42 | -22.7% | -67.9% | +7.8% | -30.5% |
| Rally | 2025-08-25 | 2025-11-25 | 66 | $87.42 | $105.44 | +20.6% | +104.5% | +5.1% | +15.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-11-25 | 2026-02-12 | 54 | $105.44 | $73.21 | -30.6% | -81.8% | +1.0% | -31.6% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-02-12 | 2026-11-06 | 186 | $73.21 | $103.63 | +41.6% | +60.1% | +8.0% | +33.6% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.