Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Symbol
III.US
Window
2007-02-12 – 2026-11-05
Min reversal 20%
Regimes
62
Current regime
Rally
since 2026-03-27 · +61.6%
Stock return
+1.7%
S&P 500
+413.0%
Excess
-411.3%
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Close
Rally
Drawdown
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
III.US
S&P 500
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2007-06-22 | 2008-10-29 | 343 | $6.59 | $2.10 | -68.1% | -38.1% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2009-02-20 | 78 | $2.10 | $2.76 | +31.3% | -17.2% | +48.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-20 | 2009-06-02 | 71 | $2.76 | $2.09 | -24.4% | +22.7% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 2009-06-02 | 2009-06-19 | 14 | $2.09 | $2.95 | +41.4% | -2.5% | +43.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-19 | 2009-07-07 | 12 | $2.95 | $2.06 | -30.1% | -4.4% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2009-07-07 | 2009-09-16 | 51 | $2.06 | $3.28 | +58.8% | +21.3% | +37.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-16 | 2009-12-15 | 64 | $3.28 | $2.27 | -30.8% | +3.7% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2009-12-15 | 2010-02-01 | 32 | $2.27 | $2.95 | +30.1% | -1.7% | +31.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-02-01 | 2010-02-26 | 19 | $2.95 | $2.36 | -20.2% | +1.4% | -21.6% |
| Rally | 2010-02-26 | 2010-03-10 | 9 | $2.36 | $2.91 | +23.6% | +3.7% | +19.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-03-10 | 2010-09-21 | 136 | $2.91 | $1.06 | -63.5% | -0.5% | -63.0% |
| Rally | 2010-09-21 | 2010-11-22 | 45 | $1.06 | $1.79 | +67.9% | +5.1% | +62.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-11-22 | 2010-12-20 | 20 | $1.79 | $1.43 | -20.0% | +4.1% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2010-12-20 | 2011-03-09 | 55 | $1.43 | $1.90 | +33.3% | +5.8% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2011-03-09 | 2011-07-15 | 90 | $1.90 | $1.12 | -41.3% | -0.3% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 2011-07-15 | 2011-07-25 | 7 | $1.12 | $1.35 | +20.6% | +1.6% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-25 | 2011-08-22 | 21 | $1.35 | $0.75 | -44.1% | -16.0% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-09-16 | 19 | $0.75 | $1.13 | +49.5% | +8.2% | +41.3% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-16 | 2011-11-02 | 34 | $1.13 | $0.75 | -33.1% | +1.8% | -34.9% |
| Rally | 2011-11-02 | 2011-11-14 | 9 | $0.75 | $1.05 | +39.0% | +1.1% | +37.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-14 | 2011-12-28 | 31 | $1.05 | $0.79 | -24.2% | -0.2% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2011-12-28 | 2012-04-24 | 81 | $0.79 | $1.15 | +45.0% | +9.8% | +35.2% |
| Drawdown | 2012-04-24 | 2012-12-06 | 157 | $1.15 | $0.79 | -31.7% | +3.1% | -34.8% |
| Rally | 2012-12-06 | 2013-10-21 | 220 | $0.79 | $3.62 | +360.6% | +23.4% | +337.2% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-21 | 2013-11-14 | 19 | $3.62 | $2.81 | -22.4% | +2.6% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2013-11-14 | 2014-02-10 | 59 | $2.81 | $4.52 | +60.7% | +0.5% | +60.2% |
| Drawdown | 2014-02-10 | 2014-10-10 | 170 | $4.52 | $2.74 | -39.4% | +5.9% | -45.3% |
| Rally | 2014-10-10 | 2015-06-25 | 178 | $2.74 | $3.96 | +44.6% | +10.3% | +34.3% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-25 | 2015-09-01 | 48 | $3.96 | $3.00 | -24.3% | -9.0% | -15.4% |
| Rally | 2015-09-01 | 2015-09-17 | 12 | $3.00 | $3.67 | +22.5% | +4.0% | +18.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-09-17 | 2016-01-20 | 86 | $3.67 | $2.39 | -35.0% | -6.6% | -28.4% |
| Rally | 2016-01-20 | 2016-02-02 | 10 | $2.39 | $3.19 | +33.8% | +2.4% | +31.4% |
| Drawdown | 2016-02-02 | 2016-02-29 | 19 | $3.19 | $2.52 | -21.1% | +1.5% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2016-02-29 | 2016-09-19 | 142 | $2.52 | $3.47 | +37.9% | +10.7% | +27.2% |
| Drawdown | 2016-09-19 | 2017-03-22 | 128 | $3.47 | $2.43 | -30.1% | +9.8% | -39.9% |
| Rally | 2017-03-22 | 2018-09-07 | 370 | $2.43 | $4.40 | +81.4% | +22.3% | +59.1% |
| Drawdown | 2018-09-07 | 2019-08-06 | 229 | $4.40 | $1.87 | -57.6% | +0.4% | -57.9% |
| Rally | 2019-08-06 | 2019-09-17 | 30 | $1.87 | $2.30 | +22.9% | +4.3% | +18.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-17 | 2019-10-31 | 33 | $2.30 | $1.78 | -22.6% | +1.1% | -23.6% |
| Rally | 2019-10-31 | 2020-02-12 | 71 | $1.78 | $3.05 | +71.3% | +11.3% | +60.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-12 | 2020-03-12 | 21 | $3.05 | $1.33 | -56.2% | -26.6% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-26 | 11 | $1.33 | $2.49 | +87.0% | +6.0% | +81.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-26 | 2020-04-03 | 7 | $2.49 | $1.46 | -41.6% | -5.4% | -36.2% |
| Rally | 2020-04-03 | 2020-05-11 | 26 | $1.46 | $2.21 | +52.0% | +17.7% | +34.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-05-11 | 2020-05-29 | 14 | $2.21 | $1.42 | -36.1% | +3.9% | -40.0% |
| Rally | 2020-05-29 | 2021-11-12 | 370 | $1.42 | $7.94 | +461.0% | +53.8% | +407.2% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-12 | 2022-01-28 | 53 | $7.94 | $5.17 | -34.9% | -5.4% | -29.5% |
| Rally | 2022-01-28 | 2022-03-03 | 24 | $5.17 | $6.44 | +24.5% | -1.5% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-03-03 | 2022-06-13 | 71 | $6.44 | $4.65 | -27.8% | -14.1% | -13.7% |
| Rally | 2022-06-13 | 2022-08-05 | 38 | $4.65 | $6.45 | +38.8% | +10.5% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-05 | 2022-10-12 | 48 | $6.45 | $4.01 | -37.9% | -13.7% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2022-10-12 | 2022-11-15 | 25 | $4.01 | $4.88 | +21.8% | +11.6% | +10.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-15 | 2022-12-20 | 25 | $4.88 | $3.64 | -25.4% | -4.3% | -21.1% |
| Rally | 2022-12-20 | 2023-06-16 | 123 | $3.64 | $5.09 | +39.7% | +15.4% | +24.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-16 | 2023-10-27 | 93 | $5.09 | $3.50 | -31.2% | -6.6% | -24.6% |
| Rally | 2023-10-27 | 2023-12-26 | 41 | $3.50 | $4.36 | +24.6% | +16.0% | +8.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-26 | 2024-05-13 | 96 | $4.36 | $2.64 | -39.4% | +9.4% | -48.7% |
| Rally | 2024-05-13 | 2024-12-11 | 148 | $2.64 | $3.52 | +33.0% | +16.5% | +16.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-12-11 | 2025-03-05 | 56 | $3.52 | $2.78 | -21.0% | -4.0% | -17.0% |
| Rally | 2025-03-05 | 2025-12-10 | 195 | $2.78 | $5.91 | +112.7% | +17.9% | +94.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-10 | 2026-03-27 | 74 | $5.91 | $3.69 | -37.6% | -7.5% | -30.1% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-03-27 | 2026-11-05 | 155 | $3.69 | $5.96 | +61.6% | +15.5% | +46.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.