Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1996-03-26 | 1996-11-04 | 156 | $0.97 | $2.19 | +127.3% | +8.2% | +119.0% |
| Drawdown | 1996-11-04 | 1997-04-28 | 121 | $2.19 | $1.63 | -25.6% | +9.4% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 1997-04-28 | 1998-08-10 | 325 | $1.63 | $3.21 | +96.8% | +40.1% | +56.6% |
| Drawdown | 1998-08-10 | 1998-08-31 | 16 | $3.21 | $2.47 | -23.0% | -11.6% | -11.3% |
| Rally | 1998-08-31 | 1998-09-30 | 22 | $2.47 | $3.16 | +27.7% | +6.2% | +21.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-09-30 | 1998-10-08 | 7 | $3.16 | $2.47 | -21.7% | -5.7% | -16.0% |
| Rally | 1998-10-08 | 1998-12-31 | 59 | $2.47 | $3.80 | +53.5% | +28.1% | +25.3% |
| Drawdown | 1998-12-31 | 1999-06-28 | 123 | $3.80 | $2.70 | -28.9% | +8.3% | -37.2% |
| Rally | 1999-06-28 | 1999-09-15 | 56 | $2.70 | $3.60 | +33.4% | -1.0% | +34.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-09-15 | 1999-10-26 | 30 | $3.60 | $2.68 | -25.6% | -2.7% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 1999-10-26 | 1999-12-31 | 47 | $2.68 | $4.14 | +54.5% | +14.6% | +39.9% |
| Drawdown | 1999-12-31 | 2000-02-28 | 40 | $4.14 | $3.07 | -25.8% | -8.2% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 2000-02-28 | 2002-05-15 | 555 | $3.07 | $5.19 | +68.9% | -19.1% | +87.9% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-15 | 2002-07-23 | 48 | $5.19 | $3.83 | -26.2% | -26.9% | +0.7% |
| Rally | 2002-07-23 | 2002-08-19 | 20 | $3.83 | $4.75 | +24.1% | +19.2% | +4.9% |
| Drawdown | 2002-08-19 | 2002-10-07 | 35 | $4.75 | $3.38 | -28.8% | -17.4% | -11.4% |
| Rally | 2002-10-07 | 2004-10-27 | 519 | $3.38 | $8.30 | +145.3% | +43.3% | +102.0% |
| Drawdown | 2004-10-27 | 2005-03-01 | 86 | $8.30 | $6.40 | -22.9% | +7.6% | -30.5% |
| Rally | 2005-03-01 | 2006-02-22 | 248 | $6.40 | $10.61 | +65.7% | +6.8% | +58.9% |
| Drawdown | 2006-02-22 | 2006-07-21 | 105 | $10.61 | $8.15 | -23.2% | -4.1% | -19.1% |
| Rally | 2006-07-21 | 2007-12-26 | 361 | $8.15 | $13.70 | +68.0% | +20.8% | +47.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-26 | 2008-03-19 | 58 | $13.70 | $8.72 | -36.3% | -13.3% | -23.0% |
| Rally | 2008-03-19 | 2008-06-05 | 55 | $8.72 | $11.04 | +26.6% | +8.1% | +18.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-06-05 | 2008-07-15 | 28 | $11.04 | $8.71 | -21.1% | -13.5% | -7.6% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-08-15 | 24 | $8.71 | $10.69 | +22.7% | +6.9% | +15.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-15 | 2008-10-15 | 43 | $10.69 | $6.97 | -34.8% | -30.1% | -4.7% |
| Rally | 2008-10-15 | 2008-11-04 | 15 | $6.97 | $8.95 | +28.5% | +10.8% | +17.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-20 | 13 | $8.95 | $6.27 | -30.0% | -25.2% | -4.8% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-05 | 30 | $6.27 | $8.81 | +40.6% | +23.3% | +17.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-03 | 40 | $8.81 | $6.07 | -31.2% | -24.9% | -6.2% |
| Rally | 2009-03-03 | 2009-07-29 | 104 | $6.07 | $11.35 | +87.2% | +40.0% | +47.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-07-29 | 2010-02-10 | 136 | $11.35 | $7.68 | -32.3% | +9.5% | -41.9% |
| Rally | 2010-02-10 | 2010-04-23 | 51 | $7.68 | $10.11 | +31.6% | +14.0% | +17.7% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-23 | 2010-09-16 | 102 | $10.11 | $7.23 | -28.5% | -7.6% | -20.9% |
| Rally | 2010-09-16 | 2011-07-07 | 204 | $7.23 | $12.96 | +79.1% | +20.3% | +58.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-07 | 2011-08-08 | 23 | $12.96 | $10.22 | -21.1% | -17.3% | -3.9% |
| Rally | 2011-08-08 | 2013-05-10 | 442 | $10.22 | $17.17 | +68.0% | +45.9% | +22.0% |
| Drawdown | 2013-05-10 | 2013-10-11 | 108 | $17.17 | $11.20 | -34.8% | +4.3% | -39.0% |
| Rally | 2013-10-11 | 2015-02-05 | 332 | $11.20 | $21.34 | +90.6% | +21.1% | +69.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-02-05 | 2015-08-25 | 140 | $21.34 | $14.16 | -33.6% | -9.5% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2015-08-25 | 2015-10-08 | 32 | $14.16 | $17.54 | +23.9% | +7.8% | +16.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-10-08 | 2016-01-20 | 71 | $17.54 | $13.57 | -22.6% | -7.7% | -15.0% |
| Rally | 2016-01-20 | 2016-07-26 | 131 | $13.57 | $23.47 | +73.0% | +16.7% | +56.3% |
| Drawdown | 2016-07-26 | 2016-11-10 | 77 | $23.47 | $18.12 | -22.8% | -0.1% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2016-11-10 | 2017-11-24 | 262 | $18.12 | $25.41 | +40.2% | +20.1% | +20.2% |
| Drawdown | 2017-11-24 | 2018-02-27 | 64 | $25.41 | $19.34 | -23.9% | +5.5% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 2018-02-27 | 2019-04-15 | 285 | $19.34 | $24.83 | +28.4% | +5.9% | +22.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-15 | 2020-04-02 | 245 | $24.83 | $15.83 | -36.3% | -13.0% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 2020-04-02 | 2022-04-20 | 517 | $15.83 | $48.48 | +206.3% | +76.5% | +129.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-20 | 2022-07-14 | 59 | $48.48 | $38.04 | -21.5% | -15.0% | -6.5% |
| Rally | 2022-07-14 | 2022-09-19 | 47 | $38.04 | $48.34 | +27.1% | +2.9% | +24.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-09-19 | 2022-09-27 | 7 | $48.34 | $37.51 | -22.4% | -6.5% | -15.9% |
| Rally | 2022-09-27 | 2024-10-28 | 525 | $37.51 | $120.13 | +220.3% | +59.7% | +160.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-28 | 2025-04-08 | 111 | $120.13 | $73.25 | -39.0% | -14.4% | -24.6% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-10-27 | 140 | $73.25 | $102.99 | +40.6% | +38.0% | +2.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-27 | 2025-12-18 | 38 | $102.99 | $77.09 | -25.1% | -1.5% | -23.7% |
| Rally | 2025-12-18 | 2026-06-23 | 127 | $77.09 | $132.03 | +71.3% | +8.7% | +62.5% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-06-23 | 2026-11-05 | 96 | $132.03 | $105.50 | -20.1% | -0.2% | -19.9% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.