Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1993-12-15 | 1994-05-20 | 109 | $14.25 | $21.25 | +49.1% | -1.5% | +50.6% |
| Drawdown | 1994-05-20 | 1994-07-21 | 43 | $21.25 | $14.63 | -31.2% | -0.5% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 1994-07-21 | 1995-01-11 | 121 | $14.63 | $23.00 | +57.3% | +2.0% | +55.3% |
| Drawdown | 1995-01-11 | 1995-01-26 | 12 | $23.00 | $18.13 | -21.2% | +1.4% | -22.6% |
| Rally | 1995-01-26 | 1995-07-10 | 114 | $18.13 | $33.50 | +84.8% | +19.0% | +65.9% |
| Drawdown | 1995-07-10 | 1995-08-08 | 22 | $33.50 | $20.88 | -37.7% | +0.6% | -38.3% |
| Rally | 1995-08-08 | 1996-04-30 | 185 | $20.88 | $58.75 | +181.4% | +16.7% | +164.7% |
| Drawdown | 1996-04-30 | 1996-06-27 | 42 | $58.75 | $28.25 | -51.9% | +2.2% | -54.1% |
| Rally | 1996-06-27 | 1996-07-02 | 4 | $28.25 | $34.38 | +21.7% | +0.8% | +20.9% |
| Drawdown | 1996-07-02 | 1996-07-15 | 9 | $34.38 | $27.25 | -20.7% | -6.5% | -14.2% |
| Rally | 1996-07-15 | 1996-08-07 | 18 | $27.25 | $36.13 | +32.6% | +5.5% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 1996-08-07 | 1996-09-12 | 26 | $36.13 | $20.00 | -44.6% | +1.1% | -45.7% |
| Rally | 1996-09-12 | 1996-09-26 | 11 | $20.00 | $27.38 | +36.9% | +2.2% | +34.7% |
| Drawdown | 1996-09-26 | 1996-10-28 | 23 | $27.38 | $15.00 | -45.2% | +1.7% | -46.9% |
| Rally | 1996-10-28 | 1997-01-30 | 66 | $15.00 | $24.75 | +65.0% | +12.5% | +52.5% |
| Drawdown | 1997-01-30 | 1997-03-03 | 22 | $24.75 | $16.75 | -32.3% | +1.4% | -33.7% |
| Rally | 1997-03-03 | 1997-06-06 | 68 | $16.75 | $27.44 | +63.8% | +7.9% | +55.9% |
| Drawdown | 1997-06-06 | 1997-11-12 | 112 | $27.44 | $17.50 | -36.2% | +5.6% | -41.8% |
| Rally | 1997-11-12 | 1997-12-04 | 16 | $17.50 | $21.50 | +22.9% | +7.4% | +15.4% |
| Drawdown | 1997-12-04 | 1997-12-18 | 11 | $21.50 | $15.25 | -29.1% | -1.8% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 1997-12-18 | 1998-02-25 | 46 | $15.25 | $21.69 | +42.2% | +9.2% | +33.0% |
| Drawdown | 1998-02-25 | 1998-10-20 | 166 | $21.69 | $4.63 | -78.7% | +2.0% | -80.7% |
| Rally | 1998-10-20 | 1998-11-02 | 10 | $4.63 | $9.50 | +105.4% | +4.5% | +100.9% |
| Drawdown | 1998-11-02 | 1998-12-15 | 31 | $9.50 | $6.06 | -36.2% | +4.6% | -40.8% |
| Rally | 1998-12-15 | 1999-02-12 | 41 | $6.06 | $9.56 | +57.7% | +5.8% | +51.9% |
| Drawdown | 1999-02-12 | 1999-03-04 | 14 | $9.56 | $6.88 | -28.1% | +1.3% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 1999-03-04 | 1999-04-16 | 31 | $6.88 | $9.50 | +38.2% | +5.8% | +32.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-04-16 | 1999-06-10 | 39 | $9.50 | $6.75 | -28.9% | -1.2% | -27.7% |
| Rally | 1999-06-10 | 1999-07-15 | 25 | $6.75 | $8.88 | +31.5% | +8.2% | +23.3% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-15 | 1999-11-08 | 82 | $8.88 | $4.25 | -52.1% | -2.3% | -49.8% |
| Rally | 1999-11-08 | 1999-11-15 | 6 | $4.25 | $6.81 | +60.3% | +1.3% | +59.0% |
| Drawdown | 1999-11-15 | 1999-12-23 | 28 | $6.81 | $4.63 | -32.1% | +4.6% | -36.7% |
| Rally | 1999-12-23 | 2000-01-27 | 24 | $4.63 | $7.25 | +56.8% | -4.1% | +60.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-27 | 2000-02-10 | 11 | $7.25 | $5.13 | -29.3% | +1.3% | -30.6% |
| Rally | 2000-02-10 | 2000-03-13 | 22 | $5.13 | $8.25 | +61.0% | -2.3% | +63.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-13 | 2000-06-01 | 57 | $8.25 | $4.50 | -45.5% | +4.7% | -50.2% |
| Rally | 2000-06-01 | 2000-06-29 | 21 | $4.50 | $8.63 | +91.7% | -0.4% | +92.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-06-29 | 2000-09-25 | 61 | $8.63 | $5.38 | -37.7% | -0.2% | -37.4% |
| Rally | 2000-09-25 | 2000-09-26 | 2 | $5.38 | $6.50 | +20.9% | -0.8% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2000-09-26 | 2000-12-20 | 61 | $6.50 | $3.31 | -49.0% | -11.4% | -37.7% |
| Rally | 2000-12-20 | 2001-05-17 | 102 | $3.31 | $15.00 | +352.8% | +1.9% | +351.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-17 | 2001-05-31 | 10 | $15.00 | $11.45 | -23.7% | -2.5% | -21.1% |
| Rally | 2001-05-31 | 2001-07-18 | 34 | $11.45 | $21.15 | +84.7% | -3.8% | +88.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-07-18 | 2001-07-26 | 7 | $21.15 | $16.01 | -24.3% | -0.4% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2001-07-26 | 2001-08-27 | 23 | $16.01 | $20.82 | +30.0% | -2.0% | +32.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-27 | 2001-09-10 | 10 | $20.82 | $15.75 | -24.4% | -7.3% | -17.0% |
| Rally | 2001-09-10 | 2001-12-06 | 59 | $15.75 | $33.70 | +114.0% | +6.8% | +107.1% |
| Drawdown | 2001-12-06 | 2002-02-27 | 56 | $33.70 | $22.95 | -31.9% | -4.9% | -27.0% |
| Rally | 2002-02-27 | 2002-04-18 | 36 | $22.95 | $36.00 | +56.9% | +1.3% | +55.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-18 | 2002-06-24 | 47 | $36.00 | $21.48 | -40.3% | -11.7% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2002-06-24 | 2002-06-28 | 5 | $21.48 | $26.23 | +22.1% | -0.3% | +22.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-06-28 | 2002-08-29 | 44 | $26.23 | $12.71 | -51.5% | -7.3% | -44.3% |
| Rally | 2002-08-29 | 2002-11-27 | 64 | $12.71 | $25.71 | +102.3% | +2.3% | +100.0% |
| Drawdown | 2002-11-27 | 2003-03-06 | 67 | $25.71 | $13.43 | -47.8% | -12.4% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2003-03-06 | 2003-07-14 | 90 | $13.43 | $24.00 | +78.7% | +22.1% | +56.6% |
| Drawdown | 2003-07-14 | 2004-01-09 | 126 | $24.00 | $17.86 | -25.6% | +11.8% | -37.3% |
| Rally | 2004-01-09 | 2004-06-25 | 116 | $17.86 | $23.50 | +31.6% | +1.1% | +30.5% |
| Drawdown | 2004-06-25 | 2004-09-27 | 65 | $23.50 | $16.59 | -29.4% | -2.7% | -26.7% |
| Rally | 2004-09-27 | 2005-08-11 | 222 | $16.59 | $53.61 | +223.1% | +12.2% | +211.0% |
| Drawdown | 2005-08-11 | 2005-10-18 | 48 | $53.61 | $38.08 | -29.0% | -4.8% | -24.1% |
| Rally | 2005-10-18 | 2006-05-04 | 137 | $38.08 | $72.81 | +91.2% | +11.4% | +79.8% |
| Drawdown | 2006-05-04 | 2006-08-01 | 62 | $72.81 | $45.05 | -38.1% | -3.1% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 2006-08-01 | 2007-10-30 | 315 | $45.05 | $109.21 | +142.4% | +20.5% | +122.0% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-30 | 2007-11-19 | 15 | $109.21 | $73.17 | -33.0% | -6.4% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2007-11-19 | 2007-12-28 | 28 | $73.17 | $98.70 | +34.9% | +3.2% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-12-28 | 2008-02-07 | 28 | $98.70 | $74.15 | -24.9% | -9.6% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2008-02-07 | 2008-08-28 | 142 | $74.15 | $105.53 | +42.3% | -2.7% | +45.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-28 | 2008-11-20 | 60 | $105.53 | $34.43 | -67.4% | -42.2% | -25.2% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-29 | 47 | $34.43 | $66.25 | +92.4% | +12.3% | +80.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-29 | 2009-03-02 | 22 | $66.25 | $40.59 | -38.7% | -17.1% | -21.7% |
| Rally | 2009-03-02 | 2010-04-29 | 294 | $40.59 | $81.15 | +99.9% | +72.2% | +27.7% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-29 | 2010-12-02 | 152 | $81.15 | $53.25 | -34.4% | +1.2% | -35.6% |
| Rally | 2010-12-02 | 2011-02-04 | 45 | $53.25 | $64.14 | +20.5% | +7.3% | +13.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-04 | 2011-10-03 | 167 | $64.14 | $27.52 | -57.1% | -16.1% | -40.9% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2012-02-16 | 95 | $27.52 | $48.23 | +75.3% | +23.5% | +51.7% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-16 | 2012-05-18 | 65 | $48.23 | $33.50 | -30.5% | -4.6% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2012-05-18 | 2013-02-12 | 184 | $33.50 | $47.90 | +43.0% | +17.3% | +25.7% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-12 | 2013-08-27 | 137 | $47.90 | $37.16 | -22.4% | +7.3% | -29.7% |
| Rally | 2013-08-27 | 2013-10-25 | 43 | $37.16 | $45.76 | +23.1% | +7.9% | +15.2% |
| Drawdown | 2013-10-25 | 2014-02-13 | 76 | $45.76 | $33.64 | -26.5% | +4.0% | -30.5% |
| Rally | 2014-02-13 | 2014-12-26 | 220 | $33.64 | $43.35 | +28.9% | +14.2% | +14.7% |
| Drawdown | 2014-12-26 | 2015-09-11 | 179 | $43.35 | $28.30 | -34.7% | -6.1% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2015-09-11 | 2017-10-20 | 533 | $28.30 | $79.40 | +180.6% | +31.3% | +149.2% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-20 | 2018-12-24 | 296 | $79.40 | $44.61 | -43.8% | -8.7% | -35.1% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2019-02-20 | 39 | $44.61 | $61.74 | +38.4% | +18.4% | +20.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-20 | 2019-03-27 | 26 | $61.74 | $46.23 | -25.1% | +0.7% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2019-03-27 | 2020-02-12 | 223 | $46.23 | $88.32 | +91.0% | +20.5% | +70.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-12 | 2020-03-18 | 25 | $88.32 | $42.45 | -51.9% | -29.0% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-04-29 | 30 | $42.45 | $75.37 | +77.6% | +22.6% | +55.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-29 | 2020-05-13 | 11 | $75.37 | $53.72 | -28.7% | -4.1% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 2020-05-13 | 2020-06-08 | 18 | $53.72 | $72.67 | +35.3% | +14.6% | +20.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-09-23 | 76 | $72.67 | $54.17 | -25.5% | +0.1% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2020-09-23 | 2021-03-03 | 111 | $54.17 | $120.31 | +122.1% | +18.0% | +104.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-03 | 2021-03-24 | 16 | $120.31 | $83.95 | -30.2% | +1.8% | -32.0% |
| Rally | 2021-03-24 | 2021-07-01 | 70 | $83.95 | $100.87 | +20.2% | +11.1% | +9.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-07-01 | 2022-06-16 | 243 | $100.87 | $43.83 | -56.5% | -15.1% | -41.4% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2022-08-03 | 33 | $43.83 | $58.62 | +33.7% | +13.3% | +20.4% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-03 | 2022-10-12 | 50 | $58.62 | $41.79 | -28.7% | -13.9% | -14.8% |
| Rally | 2022-10-12 | 2023-07-31 | 200 | $41.79 | $78.67 | +88.3% | +28.3% | +60.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-31 | 2023-10-23 | 60 | $78.67 | $56.81 | -27.8% | -8.1% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 2023-10-23 | 2024-11-11 | 266 | $56.81 | $124.45 | +119.1% | +42.3% | +76.8% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-11 | 2025-04-08 | 101 | $124.45 | $92.04 | -26.0% | -17.0% | -9.1% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-07-30 | 78 | $92.04 | $138.42 | +50.4% | +27.7% | +22.7% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-30 | 2026-05-19 | 203 | $138.42 | $78.02 | -43.6% | +15.6% | -59.2% |
| Rally | 2026-05-19 | 2026-07-28 | 48 | $78.02 | $107.02 | +37.2% | +1.0% | +36.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-28 | 2026-10-19 | 59 | $107.02 | $82.14 | -23.2% | +3.5% | -26.8% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-10-19 | 2026-11-04 | 13 | $82.14 | $101.60 | +23.7% | 0.0% | +23.7% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.