Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1992-03-16 | 1992-03-25 | 8 | $6.15 | $7.46 | +21.3% | +0.3% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 1992-03-25 | 1992-06-29 | 67 | $7.46 | $3.88 | -48.0% | +0.3% | -48.3% |
| Rally | 1992-06-29 | 1992-07-30 | 23 | $3.88 | $5.09 | +31.2% | +3.7% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 1992-07-30 | 1992-08-05 | 5 | $5.09 | $3.88 | -23.8% | -0.4% | -23.4% |
| Rally | 1992-08-05 | 1992-12-31 | 104 | $3.88 | $5.65 | +45.5% | +3.2% | +42.3% |
| Drawdown | 1992-12-31 | 1993-03-05 | 45 | $5.65 | $3.13 | -44.6% | +2.4% | -47.0% |
| Rally | 1993-03-05 | 1993-05-21 | 55 | $3.13 | $4.99 | +59.7% | -0.1% | +59.7% |
| Drawdown | 1993-05-21 | 1993-08-09 | 55 | $4.99 | $3.58 | -28.3% | +1.1% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 1993-08-09 | 1993-09-17 | 29 | $3.58 | $4.64 | +29.6% | +1.8% | +27.8% |
| Drawdown | 1993-09-17 | 1995-02-07 | 351 | $4.64 | $1.36 | -70.7% | +4.8% | -75.4% |
| Rally | 1995-02-07 | 1995-08-07 | 126 | $1.36 | $2.77 | +103.7% | +16.5% | +87.2% |
| Drawdown | 1995-08-07 | 1995-12-14 | 92 | $2.77 | $2.02 | -27.3% | +10.2% | -37.4% |
| Rally | 1995-12-14 | 1996-06-18 | 129 | $2.02 | $3.58 | +77.5% | +7.3% | +70.2% |
| Drawdown | 1996-06-18 | 1996-07-17 | 21 | $3.58 | $2.72 | -23.9% | -4.2% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 1996-07-17 | 1996-10-16 | 65 | $2.72 | $4.39 | +61.1% | +11.1% | +50.0% |
| Drawdown | 1996-10-16 | 1996-12-26 | 50 | $4.39 | $3.23 | -26.4% | +7.3% | -33.7% |
| Rally | 1996-12-26 | 1997-02-14 | 36 | $3.23 | $4.94 | +53.1% | +7.0% | +46.2% |
| Drawdown | 1997-02-14 | 1997-02-28 | 10 | $4.94 | $3.88 | -21.4% | -2.2% | -19.2% |
| Rally | 1997-02-28 | 1997-09-10 | 135 | $3.88 | $8.35 | +114.9% | +16.2% | +98.7% |
| Drawdown | 1997-09-10 | 1997-12-15 | 68 | $8.35 | $5.95 | -28.7% | +4.8% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 1997-12-15 | 1998-04-13 | 81 | $5.95 | $8.45 | +41.9% | +15.2% | +26.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-04-13 | 1998-09-22 | 114 | $8.45 | $5.24 | -37.9% | -7.2% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 1998-09-22 | 1999-07-19 | 207 | $5.24 | $11.82 | +125.5% | +36.7% | +88.8% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-19 | 1999-08-30 | 31 | $11.82 | $9.05 | -23.5% | -5.9% | -17.5% |
| Rally | 1999-08-30 | 1999-10-11 | 30 | $9.05 | $10.89 | +20.3% | +0.8% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 1999-10-11 | 1999-11-03 | 18 | $10.89 | $7.97 | -26.9% | +1.5% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 1999-11-03 | 1999-11-15 | 9 | $7.97 | $9.73 | +22.2% | +2.9% | +19.2% |
| Drawdown | 1999-11-15 | 1999-12-15 | 22 | $9.73 | $7.46 | -23.3% | +1.4% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 1999-12-15 | 2000-07-13 | 146 | $7.46 | $10.84 | +45.3% | +5.8% | +39.4% |
| Drawdown | 2000-07-13 | 2000-09-27 | 54 | $10.84 | $8.04 | -25.8% | -4.6% | -21.2% |
| Rally | 2000-09-27 | 2001-03-07 | 111 | $8.04 | $12.81 | +59.2% | -11.5% | +70.8% |
| Drawdown | 2001-03-07 | 2001-06-20 | 74 | $12.81 | $9.65 | -24.7% | -3.1% | -21.6% |
| Rally | 2001-06-20 | 2001-09-05 | 54 | $9.65 | $13.72 | +42.2% | -7.5% | +49.7% |
| Drawdown | 2001-09-05 | 2001-10-10 | 22 | $13.72 | $9.28 | -32.4% | -4.5% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2001-10-10 | 2002-05-14 | 149 | $9.28 | $13.72 | +47.8% | +1.5% | +46.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-14 | 2003-02-07 | 187 | $13.72 | $6.06 | -55.8% | -24.4% | -31.4% |
| Rally | 2003-02-07 | 2003-07-09 | 105 | $6.06 | $9.52 | +57.1% | +20.8% | +36.3% |
| Drawdown | 2003-07-09 | 2003-09-26 | 57 | $9.52 | $6.89 | -27.7% | -0.5% | -27.1% |
| Rally | 2003-09-26 | 2005-06-06 | 426 | $6.89 | $16.77 | +143.6% | +20.1% | +123.5% |
| Drawdown | 2005-06-06 | 2005-09-21 | 76 | $16.77 | $11.17 | -33.4% | +1.1% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2005-09-21 | 2007-06-04 | 427 | $11.17 | $31.32 | +180.3% | +27.2% | +153.1% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-04 | 2007-08-09 | 48 | $31.32 | $22.68 | -27.6% | -5.6% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 2007-08-09 | 2007-10-08 | 42 | $22.68 | $27.99 | +23.4% | +6.8% | +16.6% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-08 | 2008-01-14 | 68 | $27.99 | $18.70 | -33.2% | -8.8% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2008-01-14 | 2008-02-01 | 14 | $18.70 | $24.05 | +28.6% | -1.5% | +30.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-01 | 2008-07-11 | 112 | $24.05 | $15.14 | -37.1% | -11.2% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2008-07-11 | 2008-08-14 | 25 | $15.14 | $21.65 | +43.1% | +4.3% | +38.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-14 | 2008-10-27 | 52 | $21.65 | $12.91 | -40.4% | -34.3% | -6.0% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-10-31 | 5 | $12.91 | $16.22 | +25.6% | +14.1% | +11.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-31 | 2008-11-20 | 15 | $16.22 | $9.90 | -39.0% | -22.3% | -16.6% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-28 | 46 | $9.90 | $19.08 | +92.7% | +16.2% | +76.6% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-28 | 2009-03-09 | 28 | $19.08 | $13.91 | -27.1% | -22.6% | -4.5% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-06-02 | 60 | $13.91 | $22.53 | +62.0% | +39.6% | +22.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-02 | 2009-11-02 | 108 | $22.53 | $14.72 | -34.7% | +10.4% | -45.0% |
| Rally | 2009-11-02 | 2010-04-15 | 113 | $14.72 | $21.14 | +43.6% | +16.2% | +27.4% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-15 | 2010-07-06 | 57 | $21.14 | $14.92 | -29.4% | -15.2% | -14.3% |
| Rally | 2010-07-06 | 2011-02-16 | 158 | $14.92 | $19.56 | +31.1% | +30.0% | +1.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-16 | 2011-08-18 | 128 | $19.56 | $14.98 | -23.4% | -14.6% | -8.7% |
| Rally | 2011-08-18 | 2015-03-24 | 904 | $14.98 | $80.92 | +440.1% | +83.4% | +356.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-03-24 | 2016-03-28 | 255 | $80.92 | $51.72 | -36.1% | -2.6% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 2016-03-28 | 2016-12-29 | 194 | $51.72 | $94.31 | +82.3% | +10.4% | +71.9% |
| Drawdown | 2016-12-29 | 2019-07-31 | 650 | $94.31 | $62.92 | -33.3% | +32.5% | -65.8% |
| Rally | 2019-07-31 | 2019-10-03 | 46 | $62.92 | $81.30 | +29.2% | -2.3% | +31.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-10-03 | 2020-03-18 | 115 | $81.30 | $16.54 | -79.7% | -17.6% | -62.1% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-03-25 | 6 | $16.54 | $33.35 | +101.7% | +3.2% | +98.4% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-25 | 2020-03-27 | 3 | $33.35 | $26.26 | -21.3% | +2.7% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2020-03-27 | 2021-05-10 | 282 | $26.26 | $110.53 | +320.9% | +64.8% | +256.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-05-10 | 2021-12-13 | 152 | $110.53 | $71.99 | -34.9% | +11.5% | -46.3% |
| Rally | 2021-12-13 | 2022-02-09 | 41 | $71.99 | $88.44 | +22.8% | -1.8% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-09 | 2022-06-30 | 98 | $88.44 | $51.81 | -41.4% | -17.5% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2022-06-30 | 2022-08-18 | 35 | $51.81 | $86.13 | +66.3% | +13.2% | +53.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-18 | 2022-10-03 | 32 | $86.13 | $67.46 | -21.7% | -14.1% | -7.6% |
| Rally | 2022-10-03 | 2022-10-28 | 20 | $67.46 | $82.20 | +21.9% | +6.1% | +15.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-10-28 | 2022-12-13 | 32 | $82.20 | $61.79 | -24.8% | +3.0% | -27.9% |
| Rally | 2022-12-13 | 2023-07-31 | 157 | $61.79 | $93.92 | +52.0% | +14.2% | +37.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-31 | 2023-10-26 | 63 | $93.92 | $57.47 | -38.8% | -9.8% | -29.0% |
| Rally | 2023-10-26 | 2023-12-14 | 35 | $57.47 | $81.00 | +40.9% | +14.1% | +26.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-14 | 2024-07-10 | 142 | $81.00 | $44.76 | -44.7% | +19.4% | -64.1% |
| Rally | 2024-07-10 | 2024-07-30 | 15 | $44.76 | $58.18 | +30.0% | -3.5% | +33.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-30 | 2024-09-10 | 30 | $58.18 | $41.02 | -29.5% | +1.1% | -30.6% |
| Rally | 2024-09-10 | 2024-11-05 | 41 | $41.02 | $50.34 | +22.7% | +5.2% | +17.5% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-05 | 2025-04-16 | 111 | $50.34 | $22.86 | -54.6% | -8.8% | -45.8% |
| Rally | 2025-04-16 | 2025-05-12 | 18 | $22.86 | $28.80 | +26.0% | +10.8% | +15.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-12 | 2025-06-27 | 33 | $28.80 | $16.83 | -41.6% | +5.6% | -47.2% |
| Rally | 2025-06-27 | 2025-07-23 | 18 | $16.83 | $24.88 | +47.8% | +3.0% | +44.8% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-23 | 2025-08-12 | 15 | $24.88 | $16.67 | -33.0% | +1.4% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2025-08-12 | 2025-10-01 | 36 | $16.67 | $20.75 | +24.5% | +4.1% | +20.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-01 | 2025-11-18 | 35 | $20.75 | $14.25 | -31.3% | -1.4% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 2025-11-18 | 2026-01-15 | 40 | $14.25 | $23.52 | +65.1% | +4.9% | +60.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-15 | 2026-03-30 | 51 | $23.52 | $9.40 | -60.0% | -8.7% | -51.4% |
| Rally | 2026-03-30 | 2026-04-22 | 17 | $9.40 | $13.91 | +48.0% | +12.5% | +35.5% |
| Drawdown | 2026-04-22 | 2026-05-18 | 19 | $13.91 | $10.78 | -22.5% | +3.7% | -26.2% |
| Rally | 2026-05-18 | 2026-07-01 | 31 | $10.78 | $17.41 | +61.5% | +1.1% | +60.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-23 | 16 | $17.41 | $13.77 | -20.9% | -1.0% | -19.9% |
| Rally | 2026-07-23 | 2026-08-12 | 15 | $13.77 | $18.77 | +36.3% | +4.6% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-08-12 | 2026-10-23 | 52 | $18.77 | $11.03 | -41.2% | -1.6% | -39.6% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-10-23 | 2026-11-05 | 10 | $11.03 | $14.33 | +29.9% | -3.5% | +33.5% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.