Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-23 | 3 | $16.00 | $27.71 | +73.2% | -0.7% | +73.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-05-23 | 2025-06-13 | 15 | $27.71 | $18.51 | -33.2% | +3.0% | -36.2% |
| Rally | 2025-06-13 | 2025-08-05 | 36 | $18.51 | $31.47 | +70.0% | +5.4% | +64.6% |
| Drawdown | 2025-08-05 | 2025-10-17 | 53 | $31.47 | $15.03 | -52.2% | +5.8% | -58.0% |
| Rally | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-24 | 6 | $15.03 | $18.47 | +22.9% | +1.9% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-24 | 2026-02-05 | 71 | $18.47 | $7.88 | -57.3% | +0.1% | -57.4% |
| Rally | 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-11 | 5 | $7.88 | $11.15 | +41.5% | +2.1% | +39.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-11 | 2026-04-10 | 41 | $11.15 | $8.40 | -24.7% | -1.8% | -22.9% |
| Rally | 2026-04-10 | 2026-05-05 | 18 | $8.40 | $11.36 | +35.2% | +6.5% | +28.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-05-05 | 2026-05-15 | 9 | $11.36 | $7.78 | -31.5% | +2.1% | -33.6% |
| Rally | 2026-05-15 | 2026-06-01 | 11 | $7.78 | $10.74 | +38.0% | +2.6% | +35.5% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-22 | 15 | $10.74 | $7.98 | -25.7% | -1.7% | -24.0% |
| Rally | 2026-06-22 | 2026-07-06 | 10 | $7.98 | $11.39 | +42.7% | +0.9% | +41.9% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-06 | 2026-07-23 | 14 | $11.39 | $8.36 | -26.6% | -1.7% | -24.9% |
| Rally | 2026-07-23 | 2026-09-03 | 31 | $8.36 | $13.46 | +61.0% | +4.6% | +56.4% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-09-03 | 2026-11-05 | 45 | $13.46 | $4.70 | -65.1% | -5.1% | -60.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.