Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Symbol
MSFT
Window
1986-03-13 – 2026-11-05
Min reversal 20%
Regimes
63
Current regime
Rally
since 2026-06-25 · +52.2%
Stock return
+908,255.9%
S&P 500
+3,053.5%
Excess
+905,202.4%
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Close
Rally
Drawdown
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
MSFT
S&P 500
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1986-03-24 | 1986-05-30 | 48 | $0.05 | $0.07 | +33.6% | +5.1% | +28.5% |
| Drawdown | 1986-05-30 | 1986-09-03 | 67 | $0.07 | $0.06 | -22.3% | +1.1% | -23.4% |
| Rally | 1986-09-03 | 1987-05-08 | 173 | $0.06 | $0.27 | +368.4% | +17.3% | +351.1% |
| Drawdown | 1987-05-08 | 1987-07-07 | 41 | $0.27 | $0.19 | -28.7% | +4.8% | -33.5% |
| Rally | 1987-07-07 | 1987-10-05 | 64 | $0.19 | $0.33 | +75.1% | +6.7% | +68.3% |
| Drawdown | 1987-10-05 | 1987-10-19 | 11 | $0.33 | $0.19 | -42.7% | -31.5% | -11.3% |
| Rally | 1987-10-19 | 1987-10-21 | 3 | $0.19 | $0.24 | +25.2% | +14.9% | +10.3% |
| Drawdown | 1987-10-21 | 1987-10-26 | 4 | $0.24 | $0.17 | -30.7% | -11.9% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 1987-10-26 | 1987-11-05 | 9 | $0.17 | $0.21 | +28.7% | +11.8% | +17.0% |
| Drawdown | 1987-11-05 | 1987-12-03 | 20 | $0.21 | $0.17 | -20.1% | -11.5% | -8.6% |
| Rally | 1987-12-03 | 1988-07-05 | 148 | $0.17 | $0.29 | +72.4% | +22.5% | +50.0% |
| Drawdown | 1988-07-05 | 1988-11-22 | 100 | $0.29 | $0.19 | -33.9% | -3.1% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 1988-11-22 | 1989-02-09 | 55 | $0.19 | $0.27 | +38.5% | +10.8% | +27.7% |
| Drawdown | 1989-02-09 | 1989-03-20 | 27 | $0.27 | $0.20 | -27.0% | -2.1% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 1989-03-20 | 1990-07-16 | 335 | $0.20 | $0.67 | +241.1% | +27.3% | +213.8% |
| Drawdown | 1990-07-16 | 1990-08-23 | 29 | $0.67 | $0.44 | -34.7% | -16.8% | -17.9% |
| Rally | 1990-08-23 | 1992-01-15 | 353 | $0.44 | $1.66 | +281.1% | +37.0% | +244.1% |
| Drawdown | 1992-01-15 | 1992-06-26 | 115 | $1.66 | $1.27 | -23.9% | -4.1% | -19.7% |
| Rally | 1992-06-26 | 1993-06-01 | 235 | $1.27 | $1.83 | +44.2% | +12.5% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 1993-06-01 | 1993-08-10 | 50 | $1.83 | $1.35 | -26.2% | -1.0% | -25.3% |
| Rally | 1993-08-10 | 1995-07-17 | 489 | $1.35 | $4.14 | +207.0% | +25.2% | +181.8% |
| Drawdown | 1995-07-17 | 1995-10-09 | 60 | $4.14 | $3.15 | -23.7% | +2.8% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 1995-10-09 | 1995-10-30 | 16 | $3.15 | $3.90 | +23.6% | +0.8% | +22.8% |
| Drawdown | 1995-10-30 | 1996-01-09 | 49 | $3.90 | $3.04 | -22.0% | +4.5% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 1996-01-09 | 1997-07-17 | 386 | $3.04 | $11.34 | +272.9% | +52.9% | +220.0% |
| Drawdown | 1997-07-17 | 1997-12-24 | 113 | $11.34 | $9.02 | -20.4% | +0.1% | -20.6% |
| Rally | 1997-12-24 | 1998-07-17 | 141 | $9.02 | $17.90 | +98.3% | +27.2% | +71.1% |
| Drawdown | 1998-07-17 | 1998-10-08 | 59 | $17.90 | $13.84 | -22.7% | -19.2% | -3.5% |
| Rally | 1998-10-08 | 1999-12-27 | 307 | $13.84 | $36.15 | +161.3% | +51.9% | +109.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-12-27 | 2000-02-29 | 45 | $36.15 | $27.13 | -25.0% | -6.2% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2000-02-29 | 2000-03-23 | 18 | $27.13 | $33.95 | +25.2% | +11.8% | +13.4% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-23 | 2000-05-26 | 46 | $33.95 | $18.65 | -45.1% | -9.8% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2000-05-26 | 2000-07-07 | 29 | $18.65 | $24.89 | +33.5% | +7.3% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-07-07 | 2000-10-16 | 71 | $24.89 | $15.29 | -38.6% | -7.1% | -31.5% |
| Rally | 2000-10-16 | 2000-11-09 | 19 | $15.29 | $21.51 | +40.7% | +1.9% | +38.8% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-09 | 2000-12-20 | 29 | $21.51 | $12.60 | -41.4% | -9.7% | -31.8% |
| Rally | 2000-12-20 | 2001-02-07 | 33 | $12.60 | $19.63 | +55.9% | +6.0% | +49.9% |
| Drawdown | 2001-02-07 | 2001-03-21 | 30 | $19.63 | $15.19 | -22.6% | -16.3% | -6.3% |
| Rally | 2001-03-21 | 2001-06-07 | 55 | $15.19 | $22.36 | +47.2% | +13.8% | +33.4% |
| Drawdown | 2001-06-07 | 2001-09-21 | 71 | $22.36 | $15.09 | -32.5% | -24.4% | -8.2% |
| Rally | 2001-09-21 | 2002-01-17 | 82 | $15.09 | $21.20 | +40.5% | +17.9% | +22.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-01-17 | 2002-07-25 | 131 | $21.20 | $13.00 | -38.7% | -26.4% | -12.3% |
| Rally | 2002-07-25 | 2002-11-25 | 87 | $13.00 | $17.67 | +36.0% | +11.2% | +24.7% |
| Drawdown | 2002-11-25 | 2003-03-11 | 72 | $17.67 | $13.88 | -21.5% | -14.2% | -7.3% |
| Rally | 2003-03-11 | 2005-11-21 | 683 | $13.88 | $19.51 | +40.6% | +56.7% | -16.1% |
| Drawdown | 2005-11-21 | 2006-06-13 | 140 | $19.51 | $15.01 | -23.1% | -2.5% | -20.6% |
| Rally | 2006-06-13 | 2007-11-02 | 352 | $15.01 | $26.32 | +75.3% | +23.4% | +51.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-11-02 | 2009-03-09 | 338 | $26.32 | $11.07 | -57.9% | -55.2% | -2.8% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2010-04-22 | 284 | $11.07 | $23.42 | +111.6% | +78.7% | +32.9% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-22 | 2010-06-30 | 49 | $23.42 | $17.25 | -26.4% | -14.7% | -11.6% |
| Rally | 2010-06-30 | 2020-02-10 | 2,420 | $17.25 | $178.04 | +932.4% | +225.2% | +707.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-10 | 2020-03-16 | 25 | $178.04 | $128.12 | -28.0% | -28.8% | +0.8% |
| Rally | 2020-03-16 | 2021-11-19 | 427 | $128.12 | $329.89 | +157.5% | +96.9% | +60.6% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-19 | 2022-06-13 | 141 | $329.89 | $233.95 | -29.1% | -20.2% | -8.9% |
| Rally | 2022-06-13 | 2022-08-15 | 44 | $233.95 | $283.41 | +21.1% | +14.6% | +6.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-15 | 2022-11-03 | 58 | $283.41 | $207.34 | -26.8% | -13.4% | -13.4% |
| Rally | 2022-11-03 | 2024-07-05 | 418 | $207.34 | $459.46 | +121.6% | +49.7% | +71.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-05 | 2025-04-08 | 191 | $459.46 | $350.45 | -23.7% | -10.5% | -13.2% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-10-28 | 141 | $350.45 | $537.65 | +53.4% | +38.3% | +15.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-28 | 2026-03-27 | 104 | $537.65 | $355.33 | -33.9% | -7.6% | -26.3% |
| Rally | 2026-03-27 | 2026-06-01 | 45 | $355.33 | $459.65 | +29.4% | +19.3% | +10.0% |
| Drawdown | 2026-06-01 | 2026-06-25 | 18 | $459.65 | $352.17 | -23.4% | -3.2% | -20.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-06-25 | 2026-11-05 | 94 | $352.17 | $535.93 | +52.2% | -0.1% | +52.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.