Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1999-03-24 | 1999-04-13 | 14 | $15.94 | $10.31 | -35.3% | +6.4% | -41.7% |
| Rally | 1999-04-13 | 1999-05-28 | 34 | $10.31 | $13.88 | +34.5% | -3.6% | +38.1% |
| Drawdown | 1999-05-28 | 1999-06-29 | 22 | $13.88 | $10.88 | -21.6% | +3.8% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 1999-06-29 | 1999-07-16 | 13 | $10.88 | $16.31 | +50.0% | +5.0% | +45.0% |
| Drawdown | 1999-07-16 | 1999-07-30 | 11 | $16.31 | $12.56 | -23.0% | -6.3% | -16.6% |
| Rally | 1999-07-30 | 1999-09-20 | 36 | $12.56 | $20.25 | +61.2% | +0.5% | +60.7% |
| Drawdown | 1999-09-20 | 1999-10-18 | 21 | $20.25 | $15.75 | -22.2% | -6.1% | -16.1% |
| Rally | 1999-10-18 | 2000-02-28 | 92 | $15.75 | $78.94 | +401.2% | +7.5% | +393.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-02-28 | 2000-03-15 | 13 | $78.94 | $51.56 | -34.7% | +3.3% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2000-03-15 | 2000-03-23 | 7 | $51.56 | $62.63 | +21.5% | +9.7% | +11.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-23 | 2000-03-30 | 6 | $62.63 | $46.50 | -25.7% | -2.6% | -23.2% |
| Rally | 2000-03-30 | 2000-04-07 | 7 | $46.50 | $58.50 | +25.8% | +1.9% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-04-07 | 2000-04-17 | 7 | $58.50 | $42.38 | -27.6% | -7.6% | -20.0% |
| Rally | 2000-04-17 | 2000-05-15 | 20 | $42.38 | $71.06 | +67.7% | +3.6% | +64.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-05-15 | 2000-05-25 | 9 | $71.06 | $54.38 | -23.5% | -4.9% | -18.6% |
| Rally | 2000-05-25 | 2000-07-20 | 39 | $54.38 | $127.50 | +134.5% | +8.3% | +126.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-07-20 | 2000-08-03 | 11 | $127.50 | $63.75 | -50.0% | -2.9% | -47.1% |
| Rally | 2000-08-03 | 2000-09-01 | 22 | $63.75 | $82.13 | +28.8% | +4.7% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-09-01 | 2000-10-26 | 39 | $82.13 | $33.38 | -59.4% | -10.3% | -49.1% |
| Rally | 2000-10-26 | 2000-11-01 | 5 | $33.38 | $43.88 | +31.5% | +4.2% | +27.3% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-01 | 2000-11-16 | 12 | $43.88 | $31.13 | -29.1% | -3.4% | -25.6% |
| Rally | 2000-11-16 | 2000-11-27 | 7 | $31.13 | $37.50 | +20.5% | -1.7% | +22.2% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-27 | 2000-12-21 | 19 | $37.50 | $21.38 | -43.0% | -5.5% | -37.5% |
| Rally | 2000-12-21 | 2001-01-31 | 27 | $21.38 | $39.94 | +86.8% | +7.1% | +79.7% |
| Drawdown | 2001-01-31 | 2001-04-04 | 45 | $39.94 | $20.06 | -49.8% | -19.2% | -30.5% |
| Rally | 2001-04-04 | 2001-04-18 | 10 | $20.06 | $31.65 | +57.8% | +12.2% | +45.5% |
| Drawdown | 2001-04-18 | 2001-04-27 | 8 | $31.65 | $24.54 | -22.5% | +1.2% | -23.7% |
| Rally | 2001-04-27 | 2001-05-21 | 17 | $24.54 | $33.03 | +34.6% | +4.8% | +29.8% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-21 | 2001-07-25 | 46 | $33.03 | $21.39 | -35.2% | -9.3% | -25.9% |
| Rally | 2001-07-25 | 2001-08-14 | 15 | $21.39 | $25.80 | +20.6% | -0.3% | +20.9% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-14 | 2001-09-21 | 24 | $25.80 | $18.54 | -28.1% | -18.6% | -9.5% |
| Rally | 2001-09-21 | 2002-01-15 | 80 | $18.54 | $32.34 | +74.4% | +18.7% | +55.8% |
| Drawdown | 2002-01-15 | 2002-02-07 | 17 | $32.34 | $23.40 | -27.6% | -5.8% | -21.9% |
| Rally | 2002-02-07 | 2002-04-22 | 51 | $23.40 | $33.66 | +43.8% | +2.6% | +41.3% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-22 | 2002-06-26 | 47 | $33.66 | $20.64 | -38.7% | -12.1% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2002-06-26 | 2002-07-18 | 16 | $20.64 | $25.38 | +23.0% | -9.4% | +32.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-18 | 2002-10-09 | 59 | $25.38 | $10.95 | -56.9% | -11.9% | -45.0% |
| Rally | 2002-10-09 | 2002-12-02 | 38 | $10.95 | $20.67 | +88.8% | +20.3% | +68.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-12-02 | 2003-04-02 | 84 | $20.67 | $11.40 | -44.8% | -5.7% | -39.1% |
| Rally | 2003-04-02 | 2003-09-04 | 108 | $11.40 | $31.05 | +172.4% | +16.7% | +155.7% |
| Drawdown | 2003-09-04 | 2003-09-30 | 19 | $31.05 | $24.60 | -20.8% | -3.1% | -17.7% |
| Rally | 2003-09-30 | 2004-04-14 | 136 | $24.60 | $45.60 | +85.4% | +13.3% | +72.1% |
| Drawdown | 2004-04-14 | 2004-05-17 | 24 | $45.60 | $36.39 | -20.2% | -3.9% | -16.3% |
| Rally | 2004-05-17 | 2004-07-02 | 33 | $36.39 | $50.94 | +40.0% | +3.8% | +36.2% |
| Drawdown | 2004-07-02 | 2004-10-29 | 84 | $50.94 | $26.85 | -47.3% | +0.4% | -47.7% |
| Rally | 2004-10-29 | 2004-12-31 | 44 | $26.85 | $34.44 | +28.3% | +7.2% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2004-12-31 | 2005-05-12 | 92 | $34.44 | $21.99 | -36.1% | -4.3% | -31.8% |
| Rally | 2005-05-12 | 2005-10-03 | 100 | $21.99 | $32.28 | +46.8% | +5.8% | +41.0% |
| Drawdown | 2005-10-03 | 2005-10-27 | 19 | $32.28 | $25.47 | -21.1% | -3.9% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 2005-10-27 | 2006-03-03 | 87 | $25.47 | $40.41 | +58.7% | +9.2% | +49.5% |
| Drawdown | 2006-03-03 | 2006-07-13 | 92 | $40.41 | $23.67 | -41.4% | -3.5% | -37.9% |
| Rally | 2006-07-13 | 2007-10-11 | 315 | $23.67 | $34.71 | +46.6% | +25.1% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-11 | 2008-10-29 | 266 | $34.71 | $4.74 | -86.3% | -40.2% | -46.2% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2008-10-31 | 3 | $4.74 | $5.79 | +22.2% | +4.2% | +18.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-31 | 2008-12-09 | 27 | $5.79 | $1.38 | -76.2% | -8.3% | -67.9% |
| Rally | 2008-12-09 | 2009-02-17 | 47 | $1.38 | $3.54 | +156.5% | -11.2% | +167.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-17 | 2009-03-10 | 16 | $3.54 | $1.53 | -56.8% | -8.8% | -48.0% |
| Rally | 2009-03-10 | 2009-05-19 | 50 | $1.53 | $4.13 | +170.2% | +26.2% | +144.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-19 | 2009-06-03 | 11 | $4.13 | $2.64 | -36.1% | +2.6% | -38.7% |
| Rally | 2009-06-03 | 2009-06-12 | 8 | $2.64 | $3.42 | +29.5% | +1.6% | +28.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-12 | 2009-07-10 | 20 | $3.42 | $1.56 | -54.3% | -7.1% | -47.2% |
| Rally | 2009-07-10 | 2009-09-18 | 50 | $1.56 | $2.79 | +78.5% | +21.5% | +57.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-09-18 | 2009-10-02 | 11 | $2.79 | $2.04 | -26.9% | -4.0% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2009-10-02 | 2009-10-14 | 9 | $2.04 | $2.48 | +21.3% | +6.5% | +14.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-10-14 | 2009-11-05 | 17 | $2.48 | $1.91 | -23.0% | -2.3% | -20.7% |
| Rally | 2009-11-05 | 2009-11-09 | 3 | $1.91 | $2.40 | +26.0% | +2.5% | +23.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-11-09 | 2009-11-24 | 12 | $2.40 | $1.79 | -25.6% | +1.1% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2009-11-24 | 2010-05-14 | 118 | $1.79 | $9.00 | +404.2% | +2.7% | +401.5% |
| Drawdown | 2010-05-14 | 2010-08-13 | 64 | $9.00 | $6.21 | -31.0% | -5.0% | -26.0% |
| Rally | 2010-08-13 | 2011-02-14 | 127 | $6.21 | $13.96 | +124.8% | +23.4% | +101.4% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-14 | 2011-03-31 | 33 | $13.96 | $10.30 | -26.2% | -0.5% | -25.7% |
| Rally | 2011-03-31 | 2011-07-07 | 68 | $10.30 | $12.65 | +22.8% | +2.1% | +20.7% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-07 | 2011-10-03 | 62 | $12.65 | $7.27 | -42.5% | -18.8% | -23.8% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2012-05-09 | 152 | $7.27 | $12.44 | +71.1% | +23.2% | +47.9% |
| Drawdown | 2012-05-09 | 2012-11-21 | 136 | $12.44 | $7.24 | -41.8% | +2.7% | -44.5% |
| Rally | 2012-11-21 | 2013-02-22 | 63 | $7.24 | $10.00 | +38.1% | +9.0% | +29.2% |
| Drawdown | 2013-02-22 | 2013-05-09 | 54 | $10.00 | $7.98 | -20.2% | +7.3% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2013-05-09 | 2015-06-19 | 533 | $7.98 | $15.75 | +97.4% | +29.7% | +67.7% |
| Drawdown | 2015-06-19 | 2015-09-28 | 70 | $15.75 | $12.08 | -23.3% | -10.8% | -12.5% |
| Rally | 2015-09-28 | 2018-08-27 | 735 | $12.08 | $78.15 | +546.9% | +53.9% | +493.0% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-27 | 2018-10-29 | 45 | $78.15 | $56.42 | -27.8% | -8.8% | -19.0% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2018-11-08 | 9 | $56.42 | $77.89 | +38.1% | +6.3% | +31.8% |
| Drawdown | 2018-11-08 | 2018-12-24 | 31 | $77.89 | $57.95 | -25.6% | -16.2% | -9.4% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2019-06-28 | 129 | $57.95 | $94.30 | +62.7% | +25.1% | +37.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-06-28 | 2019-08-09 | 30 | $94.30 | $70.76 | -25.0% | -0.8% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2019-08-09 | 2020-02-13 | 130 | $70.76 | $98.60 | +39.3% | +15.6% | +23.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-13 | 2020-04-03 | 36 | $98.60 | $67.25 | -31.8% | -26.2% | -5.6% |
| Rally | 2020-04-03 | 2021-11-04 | 402 | $67.25 | $181.64 | +170.1% | +88.1% | +82.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-11-04 | 2022-06-16 | 155 | $181.64 | $111.53 | -38.6% | -21.7% | -16.9% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2022-08-16 | 42 | $111.53 | $157.56 | +41.3% | +17.4% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-16 | 2022-10-10 | 39 | $157.56 | $114.20 | -27.5% | -16.1% | -11.4% |
| Rally | 2022-10-10 | 2023-07-17 | 192 | $114.20 | $184.17 | +61.3% | +25.2% | +36.1% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-17 | 2023-11-07 | 81 | $184.17 | $119.75 | -35.0% | -3.2% | -31.8% |
| Rally | 2023-11-07 | 2024-07-16 | 172 | $119.75 | $186.20 | +55.5% | +29.4% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2024-07-16 | 2025-04-08 | 184 | $186.20 | $102.65 | -44.9% | -12.1% | -32.8% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2025-07-10 | 64 | $102.65 | $133.77 | +30.3% | +26.0% | +4.3% |
| Drawdown | 2025-07-10 | 2025-10-10 | 66 | $133.77 | $99.96 | -25.3% | +4.3% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2025-10-10 | 2025-11-03 | 17 | $99.96 | $135.86 | +35.9% | +4.6% | +31.3% |
| Drawdown | 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-20 | 14 | $135.86 | $99.22 | -27.0% | -4.6% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2025-11-20 | 2026-02-13 | 58 | $99.22 | $146.39 | +47.5% | +4.5% | +43.0% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-13 | 2026-03-30 | 31 | $146.39 | $113.09 | -22.7% | -7.2% | -15.5% |
| Rally | 2026-03-30 | 2026-08-17 | 97 | $113.09 | $168.75 | +49.2% | +22.1% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-08-17 | 2026-11-06 | 59 | $168.75 | $135.15 | -19.9% | -4.8% | -15.2% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.