Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 2008-08-12 | 2008-11-20 | 72 | $23.97 | $15.85 | -33.9% | -76.5% | -41.7% | +7.8% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2009-01-05 | 30 | $15.85 | $19.49 | +23.0% | +468.3% | +23.3% | -0.3% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-05 | 2009-03-03 | 40 | $19.49 | $14.17 | -27.3% | -86.6% | -24.9% | -2.4% |
| Rally | 2009-03-03 | 2017-06-19 | 2,090 | $14.17 | $76.73 | +441.5% | +22.6% | +252.3% | +189.1% |
| Drawdown | 2017-06-19 | 2018-06-06 | 244 | $76.73 | $49.88 | -35.0% | -35.9% | +13.0% | -48.0% |
| Rally | 2018-06-06 | 2018-10-25 | 100 | $49.88 | $60.50 | +21.3% | +62.7% | -2.4% | +23.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-25 | 2018-12-24 | 41 | $60.50 | $44.71 | -26.1% | -84.4% | -13.1% | -13.0% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2019-03-21 | 60 | $44.71 | $62.30 | +39.3% | +302.6% | +21.4% | +17.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-03-21 | 2019-09-20 | 128 | $62.30 | $49.61 | -20.4% | -36.1% | +4.8% | -25.2% |
| Rally | 2019-09-20 | 2020-02-21 | 106 | $49.61 | $64.36 | +29.7% | +85.7% | +11.6% | +18.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-21 | 2020-03-23 | 22 | $64.36 | $43.84 | -31.9% | -98.8% | -33.0% | +1.1% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2022-02-17 | 483 | $43.84 | $90.13 | +105.6% | +45.6% | +95.8% | +9.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-17 | 2022-03-11 | 16 | $90.13 | $71.58 | -20.6% | -97.3% | -4.0% | -16.6% |
| Rally | 2022-03-11 | 2022-05-25 | 53 | $71.58 | $88.63 | +23.8% | +176.2% | -5.4% | +29.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-25 | 2022-09-30 | 89 | $88.63 | $69.59 | -21.5% | -49.6% | -9.9% | -11.6% |
| Rally | 2022-09-30 | 2025-06-23 | 683 | $69.59 | $175.65 | +152.4% | +40.7% | +68.0% | +84.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-23 | 2025-10-31 | 93 | $175.65 | $139.40 | -20.6% | -46.5% | +13.5% | -34.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2025-10-31 | 2026-11-06 | 256 | $139.40 | $197.88 | +42.0% | +41.2% | +7.8% | +34.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.