Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1990-09-05 | 1991-01-09 | 88 | $4.08 | $3.11 | -23.8% | -54.1% | -4.0% | -19.8% |
| Rally | 1991-01-09 | 1999-12-14 | 2,258 | $3.11 | $36.18 | +1,063.1% | +31.5% | +350.5% | +712.6% |
| Drawdown | 1999-12-14 | 2000-06-08 | 123 | $36.18 | $24.98 | -30.9% | -53.2% | +4.2% | -35.1% |
| Rally | 2000-06-08 | 2000-10-20 | 95 | $24.98 | $32.06 | +28.3% | +93.7% | -4.4% | +32.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-10-20 | 2001-05-29 | 151 | $32.06 | $24.68 | -23.0% | -35.3% | -9.2% | -13.8% |
| Rally | 2001-05-29 | 2004-12-02 | 883 | $24.68 | $53.98 | +118.7% | +25.0% | -6.1% | +124.8% |
| Drawdown | 2004-12-02 | 2005-04-28 | 102 | $53.98 | $38.38 | -28.9% | -57.0% | -4.0% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2005-04-28 | 2006-01-31 | 192 | $38.38 | $46.59 | +21.4% | +29.0% | +12.0% | +9.4% |
| Drawdown | 2006-01-31 | 2007-08-03 | 380 | $46.59 | $33.04 | -29.1% | -20.4% | +12.0% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 2007-08-03 | 2007-08-20 | 12 | $33.04 | $39.70 | +20.2% | +4,638.7% | +0.9% | +19.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-08-20 | 2008-01-18 | 106 | $39.70 | $24.48 | -38.3% | -68.3% | -8.3% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2008-01-18 | 2008-04-28 | 69 | $24.48 | $34.39 | +40.5% | +246.2% | +5.4% | +35.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-04-28 | 2008-07-15 | 55 | $34.39 | $19.88 | -42.2% | -91.9% | -13.0% | -29.2% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-19 | 48 | $19.88 | $37.12 | +86.8% | +2,555.7% | +3.3% | +83.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-19 | 2008-10-09 | 15 | $37.12 | $25.31 | -31.8% | -99.8% | -27.5% | -4.3% |
| Rally | 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-16 | 6 | $25.31 | $33.97 | +34.2% | +23,369,197.0% | +4.0% | +30.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-16 | 2008-10-27 | 8 | $33.97 | $26.10 | -23.2% | -100.0% | -10.3% | -12.9% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-11-04 | 7 | $26.10 | $33.64 | +28.9% | +925,882.0% | +18.5% | +10.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-12 | 7 | $33.64 | $26.30 | -21.8% | -100.0% | -15.3% | -6.5% |
| Rally | 2008-11-12 | 2008-11-13 | 2 | $26.30 | $31.86 | +21.1% | +3,030,995,458,269.0% | +6.9% | +14.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-13 | 2008-11-20 | 6 | $31.86 | $24.10 | -24.4% | -100.0% | -17.4% | -6.9% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-11-26 | 5 | $24.10 | $32.81 | +36.1% | +566,091,863.7% | +18.0% | +18.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-26 | 2008-12-01 | 3 | $32.81 | $25.75 | -21.5% | -100.0% | -8.1% | -13.5% |
| Rally | 2008-12-01 | 2008-12-31 | 22 | $25.75 | $32.78 | +27.3% | +1,491.8% | +10.7% | +16.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-31 | 2009-01-20 | 13 | $32.78 | $22.43 | -31.6% | -99.9% | -10.9% | -20.7% |
| Rally | 2009-01-20 | 2009-02-09 | 15 | $22.43 | $27.16 | +21.1% | +2,386.5% | +8.0% | +13.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-09 | 2009-03-09 | 20 | $27.16 | $18.60 | -31.5% | -99.2% | -22.2% | -9.3% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-05-18 | 50 | $18.60 | $32.63 | +75.4% | +1,599.8% | +34.5% | +41.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-18 | 2009-07-09 | 37 | $32.63 | $25.55 | -21.7% | -81.1% | -3.0% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2009-07-09 | 2010-12-27 | 371 | $25.55 | $38.50 | +50.7% | +32.1% | +42.5% | +8.2% |
| Drawdown | 2010-12-27 | 2011-09-22 | 188 | $38.50 | $26.56 | -31.0% | -39.2% | -10.2% | -20.8% |
| Rally | 2011-09-22 | 2016-12-28 | 1,326 | $26.56 | $84.71 | +218.9% | +24.7% | +99.2% | +119.7% |
| Drawdown | 2016-12-28 | 2017-08-17 | 161 | $84.71 | $67.34 | -20.5% | -30.2% | +8.0% | -28.5% |
| Rally | 2017-08-17 | 2018-06-06 | 202 | $67.34 | $87.73 | +30.3% | +39.1% | +14.1% | +16.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-06 | 2018-12-24 | 140 | $87.73 | $59.72 | -31.9% | -50.0% | -15.2% | -16.7% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2019-12-17 | 248 | $59.72 | $82.53 | +38.2% | +38.9% | +35.8% | +2.4% |
| Drawdown | 2019-12-17 | 2020-03-12 | 59 | $82.53 | $60.29 | -27.0% | -73.9% | -22.3% | -4.7% |
| Rally | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-17 | 4 | $60.29 | $74.45 | +23.5% | +59,163,304.5% | +2.0% | +21.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-17 | 2020-04-16 | 22 | $74.45 | $55.70 | -25.2% | -96.4% | +10.7% | -35.9% |
| Rally | 2020-04-16 | 2020-04-29 | 10 | $55.70 | $67.97 | +22.0% | +15,004.2% | +5.0% | +17.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-29 | 2020-07-09 | 50 | $67.97 | $52.41 | -22.9% | -73.0% | +7.2% | -30.1% |
| Rally | 2020-07-09 | 2021-03-19 | 176 | $52.41 | $117.42 | +124.1% | +217.4% | +24.1% | +99.9% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-19 | 2021-07-19 | 84 | $117.42 | $92.16 | -21.5% | -51.7% | +8.8% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2021-07-19 | 2022-01-06 | 121 | $92.16 | $123.97 | +34.5% | +85.4% | +10.3% | +24.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-06 | 2022-05-19 | 93 | $123.97 | $98.77 | -20.3% | -46.0% | -16.9% | -3.4% |
| Rally | 2022-05-19 | 2022-11-30 | 135 | $98.77 | $134.14 | +35.8% | +77.1% | +4.6% | +31.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-30 | 2023-10-02 | 210 | $134.14 | $84.65 | -36.9% | -42.5% | +5.1% | -42.0% |
| Rally | 2023-10-02 | 2024-11-06 | 278 | $84.65 | $194.32 | +129.6% | +112.4% | +38.3% | +91.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-06 | 2025-04-10 | 106 | $194.32 | $135.33 | -30.4% | -57.7% | -11.1% | -19.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2025-04-10 | 2026-11-06 | 397 | $135.33 | $176.95 | +30.8% | +18.6% | +40.0% | -9.3% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.