Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1996-07-16 | 1996-10-11 | 63 | $1.69 | $3.52 | +108.3% | +11.5% | +96.8% |
| Drawdown | 1996-10-11 | 1996-11-04 | 17 | $3.52 | $2.66 | -24.4% | +0.9% | -25.3% |
| Rally | 1996-11-04 | 1996-11-19 | 12 | $2.66 | $3.38 | +27.0% | +5.0% | +22.0% |
| Drawdown | 1996-11-19 | 1996-12-27 | 27 | $3.38 | $2.69 | -20.4% | +2.0% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 1996-12-27 | 1997-07-14 | 137 | $2.69 | $6.65 | +147.1% | +21.4% | +125.8% |
| Drawdown | 1997-07-14 | 1997-10-27 | 75 | $6.65 | $4.31 | -35.2% | -4.5% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 1997-10-27 | 1998-03-20 | 100 | $4.31 | $8.57 | +98.7% | +25.3% | +73.4% |
| Drawdown | 1998-03-20 | 1998-10-09 | 142 | $8.57 | $5.41 | -36.9% | -10.4% | -26.5% |
| Rally | 1998-10-09 | 2000-01-24 | 325 | $5.41 | $29.10 | +438.2% | +42.4% | +395.8% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-24 | 2000-01-31 | 6 | $29.10 | $22.30 | -23.4% | -0.5% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2000-01-31 | 2000-03-10 | 29 | $22.30 | $50.07 | +124.5% | +0.0% | +124.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-03-10 | 2000-04-04 | 18 | $50.07 | $26.39 | -47.3% | +7.1% | -54.4% |
| Rally | 2000-04-04 | 2000-04-07 | 4 | $26.39 | $38.34 | +45.3% | +1.4% | +43.9% |
| Drawdown | 2000-04-07 | 2000-04-14 | 6 | $38.34 | $26.84 | -30.0% | -10.5% | -19.5% |
| Rally | 2000-04-14 | 2000-07-17 | 64 | $26.84 | $51.77 | +92.9% | +11.3% | +81.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-07-17 | 2000-10-12 | 63 | $51.77 | $31.35 | -39.4% | -12.0% | -27.5% |
| Rally | 2000-10-12 | 2000-11-02 | 16 | $31.35 | $39.47 | +25.9% | +7.4% | +18.5% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-02 | 2000-11-22 | 15 | $39.47 | $26.62 | -32.6% | -7.4% | -25.2% |
| Rally | 2000-11-22 | 2000-12-12 | 14 | $26.62 | $35.41 | +33.1% | +3.7% | +29.4% |
| Drawdown | 2000-12-12 | 2001-01-09 | 19 | $35.41 | $20.86 | -41.1% | -5.1% | -36.0% |
| Rally | 2001-01-09 | 2001-01-24 | 11 | $20.86 | $31.92 | +53.0% | +4.9% | +48.1% |
| Drawdown | 2001-01-24 | 2001-03-22 | 41 | $31.92 | $16.58 | -48.1% | -18.1% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2001-03-22 | 2001-05-02 | 29 | $16.58 | $25.26 | +52.4% | +13.4% | +39.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-02 | 2001-06-27 | 40 | $25.26 | $16.67 | -34.0% | -4.4% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2001-06-27 | 2001-07-02 | 4 | $16.67 | $21.05 | +26.2% | +2.1% | +24.1% |
| Drawdown | 2001-07-02 | 2001-07-18 | 12 | $21.05 | $16.01 | -24.0% | -2.3% | -21.6% |
| Rally | 2001-07-18 | 2001-08-27 | 29 | $16.01 | $20.15 | +25.9% | -2.4% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2001-08-27 | 2001-09-26 | 18 | $20.15 | $11.17 | -44.6% | -14.6% | -30.0% |
| Rally | 2001-09-26 | 2002-01-07 | 71 | $11.17 | $18.78 | +68.1% | +15.7% | +52.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-01-07 | 2002-03-01 | 38 | $18.78 | $12.63 | -32.7% | -2.8% | -29.9% |
| Rally | 2002-03-01 | 2002-03-18 | 12 | $12.63 | $15.28 | +21.0% | +3.0% | +18.0% |
| Drawdown | 2002-03-18 | 2002-04-29 | 30 | $15.28 | $11.36 | -25.7% | -8.6% | -17.1% |
| Rally | 2002-04-29 | 2002-05-17 | 15 | $11.36 | $14.32 | +26.1% | +3.9% | +22.2% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-17 | 2002-10-04 | 98 | $14.32 | $4.07 | -71.6% | -27.7% | -43.9% |
| Rally | 2002-10-04 | 2002-10-17 | 10 | $4.07 | $6.51 | +59.9% | +9.8% | +50.0% |
| Drawdown | 2002-10-17 | 2002-12-27 | 50 | $6.51 | $4.64 | -28.7% | -0.4% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2002-12-27 | 2004-02-17 | 286 | $4.64 | $14.16 | +205.5% | +32.2% | +173.3% |
| Drawdown | 2004-02-17 | 2004-09-03 | 140 | $14.16 | $7.93 | -44.0% | -3.7% | -40.3% |
| Rally | 2004-09-03 | 2005-09-09 | 257 | $7.93 | $12.49 | +57.6% | +11.5% | +46.1% |
| Drawdown | 2005-09-09 | 2005-11-28 | 56 | $12.49 | $9.76 | -21.9% | +1.3% | -23.1% |
| Rally | 2005-11-28 | 2007-10-30 | 484 | $9.76 | $21.36 | +118.9% | +21.8% | +97.1% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-30 | 2008-03-19 | 97 | $21.36 | $16.70 | -21.8% | -15.2% | -6.6% |
| Rally | 2008-03-19 | 2008-05-01 | 31 | $16.70 | $20.37 | +22.0% | +8.5% | +13.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-01 | 2008-10-27 | 125 | $20.37 | $11.71 | -42.5% | -39.8% | -2.8% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2010-04-14 | 368 | $11.71 | $21.75 | +85.7% | +42.6% | +43.1% |
| Drawdown | 2010-04-14 | 2010-10-07 | 124 | $21.75 | $15.44 | -29.0% | -4.3% | -24.7% |
| Rally | 2010-10-07 | 2011-05-04 | 145 | $15.44 | $19.98 | +29.4% | +16.3% | +13.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-05-04 | 2011-10-07 | 110 | $19.98 | $11.48 | -42.6% | -14.2% | -28.3% |
| Rally | 2011-10-07 | 2015-09-17 | 992 | $11.48 | $25.59 | +123.0% | +72.2% | +50.8% |
| Drawdown | 2015-09-17 | 2016-06-27 | 196 | $25.59 | $18.32 | -28.4% | +0.5% | -28.9% |
| Rally | 2016-06-27 | 2019-04-10 | 702 | $18.32 | $37.59 | +105.3% | +44.4% | +60.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-10 | 2019-10-08 | 126 | $37.59 | $23.08 | -38.6% | +0.2% | -38.8% |
| Rally | 2019-10-08 | 2019-12-02 | 39 | $23.08 | $39.15 | +69.6% | +7.6% | +62.0% |
| Drawdown | 2019-12-02 | 2019-12-26 | 18 | $39.15 | $29.89 | -23.6% | +4.0% | -27.7% |
| Rally | 2019-12-26 | 2021-09-02 | 426 | $29.89 | $51.62 | +72.7% | +40.0% | +32.7% |
| Drawdown | 2021-09-02 | 2022-09-27 | 269 | $51.62 | $37.15 | -28.0% | -19.6% | -8.4% |
| Rally | 2022-09-27 | 2023-01-11 | 74 | $37.15 | $46.11 | +24.1% | +8.8% | +15.3% |
| Drawdown | 2023-01-11 | 2023-10-30 | 202 | $46.11 | $32.29 | -30.0% | +5.0% | -34.9% |
| Rally | 2023-10-30 | 2026-01-21 | 558 | $32.29 | $55.16 | +70.8% | +65.0% | +5.8% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-21 | 2026-05-11 | 77 | $55.16 | $32.34 | -41.4% | +7.8% | -49.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-05-11 | 2026-11-06 | 126 | $32.34 | $50.33 | +55.6% | -0.5% | +56.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.