Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1996-06-06 | 1997-01-20 | 110 | $5.83 | $4.35 | -25.3% | +15.4% | -40.7% |
| Rally | 1997-01-20 | 1998-03-03 | 256 | $4.35 | $10.90 | +150.5% | +35.4% | +115.1% |
| Drawdown | 1998-03-03 | 1998-10-14 | 156 | $10.90 | $7.99 | -26.7% | -4.4% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 1998-10-14 | 1998-11-12 | 22 | $7.99 | $10.16 | +27.1% | +11.2% | +15.9% |
| Drawdown | 1998-11-12 | 1999-09-03 | 201 | $10.16 | $7.63 | -24.9% | +21.4% | -46.3% |
| Rally | 1999-09-03 | 1999-10-01 | 20 | $7.63 | $9.51 | +24.6% | -5.5% | +30.1% |
| Drawdown | 1999-10-01 | 2000-02-24 | 101 | $9.51 | $5.95 | -37.5% | +5.5% | -43.0% |
| Rally | 2000-02-24 | 2003-12-12 | 955 | $5.95 | $20.76 | +249.0% | -20.6% | +269.6% |
| Drawdown | 2003-12-12 | 2004-07-22 | 152 | $20.76 | $16.23 | -21.8% | +2.1% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2004-07-22 | 2005-01-03 | 115 | $16.23 | $20.31 | +25.1% | +9.6% | +15.5% |
| Drawdown | 2005-01-03 | 2005-04-11 | 68 | $20.31 | $16.24 | -20.0% | -1.7% | -18.3% |
| Rally | 2005-04-11 | 2007-01-04 | 438 | $16.24 | $21.55 | +32.8% | +20.1% | +12.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-01-04 | 2007-08-03 | 147 | $21.55 | $14.77 | -31.5% | +1.0% | -32.5% |
| Rally | 2007-08-03 | 2007-08-17 | 11 | $14.77 | $18.23 | +23.5% | +0.9% | +22.6% |
| Drawdown | 2007-08-17 | 2008-07-15 | 229 | $18.23 | $7.95 | -56.4% | -16.0% | -40.4% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-09-19 | 48 | $7.95 | $13.83 | +74.0% | +3.3% | +70.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-19 | 2008-10-27 | 27 | $13.83 | $10.30 | -25.5% | -32.4% | +6.9% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-11-03 | 6 | $10.30 | $12.89 | +25.1% | +13.8% | +11.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-03 | 2008-11-20 | 14 | $12.89 | $8.84 | -31.4% | -22.1% | -9.3% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-12-26 | 25 | $8.84 | $13.39 | +51.5% | +16.0% | +35.5% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-26 | 2009-03-09 | 49 | $13.39 | $3.93 | -70.7% | -22.5% | -48.2% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-05-08 | 44 | $3.93 | $10.25 | +161.0% | +37.4% | +123.7% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-08 | 2009-05-22 | 11 | $10.25 | $7.93 | -22.6% | -4.5% | -18.1% |
| Rally | 2009-05-22 | 2009-08-07 | 54 | $7.93 | $10.77 | +35.8% | +13.9% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-08-07 | 2009-12-29 | 100 | $10.77 | $5.13 | -52.4% | +11.5% | -63.8% |
| Rally | 2009-12-29 | 2010-05-12 | 93 | $5.13 | $11.05 | +115.3% | +4.0% | +111.3% |
| Drawdown | 2010-05-12 | 2010-07-21 | 49 | $11.05 | $8.53 | -22.8% | -8.7% | -14.1% |
| Rally | 2010-07-21 | 2011-02-18 | 149 | $8.53 | $12.30 | +44.2% | +25.6% | +18.7% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-18 | 2011-09-23 | 151 | $12.30 | $8.70 | -29.3% | -15.4% | -13.9% |
| Rally | 2011-09-23 | 2013-11-29 | 550 | $8.70 | $19.31 | +122.0% | +58.9% | +63.1% |
| Drawdown | 2013-11-29 | 2014-02-19 | 55 | $19.31 | $15.02 | -22.2% | +1.3% | -23.5% |
| Rally | 2014-02-19 | 2017-04-26 | 803 | $15.02 | $33.23 | +121.2% | +30.6% | +90.6% |
| Drawdown | 2017-04-26 | 2018-12-24 | 420 | $33.23 | $23.37 | -29.7% | -1.5% | -28.1% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2020-01-03 | 259 | $23.37 | $30.55 | +30.7% | +37.6% | -6.9% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-03 | 2020-03-18 | 52 | $30.55 | $15.01 | -50.9% | -25.9% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-04-29 | 30 | $15.01 | $21.27 | +41.7% | +22.6% | +19.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-29 | 2020-05-13 | 11 | $21.27 | $16.38 | -23.0% | -4.1% | -18.9% |
| Rally | 2020-05-13 | 2020-06-08 | 18 | $16.38 | $24.32 | +48.4% | +14.6% | +33.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-07-09 | 23 | $24.32 | $17.43 | -28.3% | -2.5% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2020-07-09 | 2022-01-14 | 385 | $17.43 | $44.44 | +154.9% | +47.9% | +107.0% |
| Drawdown | 2022-01-14 | 2023-05-11 | 332 | $44.44 | $18.14 | -59.2% | -11.4% | -47.8% |
| Rally | 2023-05-11 | 2023-06-13 | 23 | $18.14 | $23.64 | +30.3% | +5.8% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-13 | 2023-10-25 | 94 | $23.64 | $18.22 | -22.9% | -4.2% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2023-10-25 | 2023-12-27 | 44 | $18.22 | $26.05 | +43.0% | +14.2% | +28.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-12-27 | 2024-04-17 | 77 | $26.05 | $18.92 | -27.4% | +5.0% | -32.4% |
| Rally | 2024-04-17 | 2024-11-25 | 155 | $18.92 | $38.33 | +102.6% | +19.2% | +83.4% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2024-11-25 | 2025-03-31 | 85 | $38.33 | $27.95 | -27.1% | -6.3% | -20.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.