Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1984-12-17 | 1986-04-23 | 340 | $1.84 | $3.65 | +98.9% | +47.8% | +51.2% |
| Drawdown | 1986-04-23 | 1986-08-05 | 73 | $3.65 | $2.80 | -23.3% | -2.0% | -21.4% |
| Rally | 1986-08-05 | 1987-03-27 | 164 | $2.80 | $4.41 | +57.5% | +24.9% | +32.6% |
| Drawdown | 1987-03-27 | 1987-10-26 | 148 | $4.41 | $2.46 | -44.2% | -23.1% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 1987-10-26 | 1989-05-04 | 385 | $2.46 | $4.42 | +79.4% | +35.2% | +44.2% |
| Drawdown | 1989-05-04 | 1989-05-12 | 7 | $4.42 | $1.07 | -75.8% | +2.0% | -77.8% |
| Rally | 1989-05-12 | 1989-10-10 | 105 | $1.07 | $1.99 | +86.0% | +14.4% | +71.6% |
| Drawdown | 1989-10-10 | 1989-12-20 | 51 | $1.99 | $1.58 | -20.4% | -4.5% | -15.9% |
| Rally | 1989-12-20 | 1990-06-18 | 124 | $1.58 | $2.63 | +66.2% | +4.1% | +62.1% |
| Drawdown | 1990-06-18 | 1990-09-28 | 73 | $2.63 | $1.61 | -38.6% | -14.2% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 1990-09-28 | 1992-02-14 | 346 | $1.61 | $4.84 | +200.0% | +34.8% | +165.2% |
| Drawdown | 1992-02-14 | 1992-10-14 | 169 | $4.84 | $3.53 | -27.2% | -0.8% | -26.4% |
| Rally | 1992-10-14 | 1998-03-10 | 1,365 | $3.53 | $23.78 | +573.9% | +160.0% | +414.0% |
| Drawdown | 1998-03-10 | 1998-07-06 | 82 | $23.78 | $12.06 | -49.3% | +8.7% | -58.0% |
| Rally | 1998-07-06 | 1998-08-25 | 37 | $12.06 | $15.03 | +24.6% | -5.6% | +30.2% |
| Drawdown | 1998-08-25 | 1998-10-08 | 32 | $15.03 | $9.54 | -36.6% | -12.2% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 1998-10-08 | 1999-06-04 | 165 | $9.54 | $23.18 | +143.0% | +38.4% | +104.7% |
| Drawdown | 1999-06-04 | 1999-12-14 | 135 | $23.18 | $15.40 | -33.6% | +5.7% | -39.3% |
| Rally | 1999-12-14 | 2000-01-13 | 22 | $15.40 | $20.79 | +35.0% | +3.3% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 2000-01-13 | 2000-03-14 | 42 | $20.79 | $15.18 | -27.0% | -6.2% | -20.7% |
| Rally | 2000-03-14 | 2000-04-10 | 20 | $15.18 | $20.08 | +32.3% | +10.7% | +21.6% |
| Drawdown | 2000-04-10 | 2000-10-23 | 137 | $20.08 | $14.63 | -27.2% | -7.2% | -19.9% |
| Rally | 2000-10-23 | 2000-11-07 | 12 | $14.63 | $17.79 | +21.6% | +2.6% | +19.1% |
| Drawdown | 2000-11-07 | 2000-12-19 | 30 | $17.79 | $9.15 | -48.6% | -8.8% | -39.7% |
| Rally | 2000-12-19 | 2001-03-09 | 55 | $9.15 | $14.01 | +53.1% | -5.5% | +58.6% |
| Drawdown | 2001-03-09 | 2001-04-03 | 18 | $14.01 | $10.88 | -22.3% | -10.3% | -12.1% |
| Rally | 2001-04-03 | 2001-05-18 | 33 | $10.88 | $15.28 | +40.4% | +16.8% | +23.6% |
| Drawdown | 2001-05-18 | 2001-09-21 | 84 | $15.28 | $11.32 | -25.9% | -25.2% | -0.7% |
| Rally | 2001-09-21 | 2001-12-06 | 54 | $11.32 | $16.05 | +41.8% | +20.8% | +21.0% |
| Drawdown | 2001-12-06 | 2002-01-16 | 28 | $16.05 | $12.52 | -22.0% | -3.4% | -18.6% |
| Rally | 2002-01-16 | 2002-04-10 | 58 | $12.52 | $16.47 | +31.5% | +0.3% | +31.2% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-10 | 2002-07-23 | 73 | $16.47 | $10.72 | -34.9% | -29.4% | -5.5% |
| Rally | 2002-07-23 | 2002-07-29 | 5 | $10.72 | $12.92 | +20.6% | +12.7% | +7.9% |
| Drawdown | 2002-07-29 | 2002-07-31 | 3 | $12.92 | $4.96 | -61.6% | +1.4% | -63.0% |
| Rally | 2002-07-31 | 2002-10-01 | 44 | $4.96 | $6.15 | +23.9% | -7.0% | +30.9% |
| Drawdown | 2002-10-01 | 2002-10-10 | 8 | $6.15 | $4.50 | -26.9% | -5.2% | -21.7% |
| Rally | 2002-10-10 | 2006-04-05 | 878 | $4.50 | $20.25 | +350.1% | +63.1% | +286.9% |
| Drawdown | 2006-04-05 | 2006-07-27 | 79 | $20.25 | $15.76 | -22.2% | -3.7% | -18.5% |
| Rally | 2006-07-27 | 2007-02-21 | 143 | $15.76 | $23.33 | +48.0% | +15.4% | +32.6% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-21 | 2008-01-09 | 224 | $23.33 | $14.27 | -38.8% | -3.3% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2008-01-09 | 2008-04-25 | 75 | $14.27 | $19.88 | +39.3% | -0.8% | +40.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-04-25 | 2008-07-14 | 55 | $19.88 | $12.95 | -34.8% | -12.1% | -22.7% |
| Rally | 2008-07-14 | 2008-09-12 | 44 | $12.95 | $17.82 | +37.6% | +1.9% | +35.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-12 | 2008-11-20 | 50 | $17.82 | $8.98 | -49.6% | -39.9% | -9.7% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-11-28 | 6 | $8.98 | $11.28 | +25.5% | +19.1% | +6.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-28 | 2009-03-03 | 64 | $11.28 | $7.49 | -33.6% | -22.3% | -11.3% |
| Rally | 2009-03-03 | 2011-02-14 | 494 | $7.49 | $21.60 | +188.3% | +91.3% | +97.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-02-14 | 2011-10-03 | 161 | $21.60 | $12.03 | -44.3% | -17.5% | -26.8% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2012-02-17 | 96 | $12.03 | $16.34 | +35.8% | +23.8% | +12.0% |
| Drawdown | 2012-02-17 | 2012-08-23 | 131 | $16.34 | $10.33 | -36.8% | +3.0% | -39.8% |
| Rally | 2012-08-23 | 2015-08-05 | 741 | $10.33 | $46.24 | +347.7% | +49.8% | +297.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-08-05 | 2016-01-28 | 122 | $46.24 | $32.19 | -30.4% | -9.8% | -20.5% |
| Rally | 2016-01-28 | 2016-04-27 | 63 | $32.19 | $44.34 | +37.7% | +10.7% | +27.1% |
| Drawdown | 2016-04-27 | 2018-10-24 | 630 | $44.34 | $26.81 | -39.5% | +26.8% | -66.3% |
| Rally | 2018-10-24 | 2019-04-11 | 116 | $26.81 | $41.19 | +53.6% | +8.7% | +44.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-11 | 2020-03-18 | 236 | $41.19 | $15.70 | -61.9% | -17.0% | -44.9% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2022-03-29 | 513 | $15.70 | $64.61 | +311.6% | +93.1% | +218.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-03-29 | 2022-11-03 | 153 | $64.61 | $38.40 | -40.6% | -19.7% | -20.9% |
| Rally | 2022-11-03 | 2023-02-02 | 62 | $38.40 | $52.33 | +36.3% | +12.4% | +23.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-02 | 2023-05-31 | 82 | $52.33 | $35.38 | -32.4% | +0.0% | -32.4% |
| Rally | 2023-05-31 | 2023-07-25 | 38 | $35.38 | $43.89 | +24.1% | +9.3% | +14.8% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-25 | 2023-10-23 | 64 | $43.89 | $27.00 | -38.5% | -7.7% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 2023-10-23 | 2024-06-04 | 155 | $27.00 | $38.29 | +41.8% | +25.5% | +16.3% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-04 | 2025-04-08 | 212 | $38.29 | $23.42 | -38.8% | -5.8% | -33.0% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2025-04-08 | 2026-04-09 | 252 | $23.42 | $42.15 | +80.0% | +37.0% | +43.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.