Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Symbol
SMC.US
Window
2012-09-28 – 2026-11-06
Min reversal 20%
Regimes
62
Current regime
Drawdown
since 2026-09-01 · -22.4%
Stock return
-81.8%
S&P 500
+412.0%
Excess
-493.9%
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Close
Rally
Drawdown
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
SMC.US
S&P 500
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2012-11-15 | 2014-09-03 | 452 | $132.06 | $437.06 | +231.0% | +94.9% | +47.8% | +183.1% |
| Drawdown | 2014-09-03 | 2014-12-12 | 72 | $437.06 | $261.76 | -40.1% | -83.4% | +0.1% | -40.2% |
| Rally | 2014-12-12 | 2015-02-18 | 45 | $261.76 | $321.77 | +22.9% | +217.7% | +4.9% | +18.1% |
| Drawdown | 2015-02-18 | 2015-09-29 | 156 | $321.77 | $123.12 | -61.7% | -78.8% | -10.3% | -51.5% |
| Rally | 2015-09-29 | 2015-11-03 | 26 | $123.12 | $172.89 | +40.4% | +2,587.0% | +12.0% | +28.5% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-03 | 2015-12-07 | 24 | $172.89 | $113.39 | -34.4% | -98.8% | -1.6% | -32.9% |
| Rally | 2015-12-07 | 2016-01-05 | 20 | $113.39 | $164.49 | +45.1% | +10,762.6% | -2.9% | +48.0% |
| Drawdown | 2016-01-05 | 2016-01-21 | 12 | $164.49 | $121.58 | -26.1% | -99.8% | -7.3% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2016-01-21 | 2016-01-29 | 7 | $121.58 | $160.57 | +32.1% | +2,233,309.5% | +3.8% | +28.3% |
| Drawdown | 2016-01-29 | 2016-02-25 | 19 | $160.57 | $108.92 | -32.2% | -99.4% | +0.6% | -32.8% |
| Rally | 2016-02-25 | 2017-01-19 | 228 | $108.92 | $252.35 | +131.7% | +153.1% | +16.0% | +115.7% |
| Drawdown | 2017-01-19 | 2017-11-29 | 219 | $252.35 | $196.50 | -22.1% | -25.0% | +16.0% | -38.1% |
| Rally | 2017-11-29 | 2018-02-01 | 44 | $196.50 | $239.40 | +21.8% | +209.9% | +7.5% | +14.4% |
| Drawdown | 2018-02-01 | 2018-04-09 | 46 | $239.40 | $142.46 | -40.5% | -94.2% | -7.4% | -33.1% |
| Rally | 2018-04-09 | 2018-08-22 | 96 | $142.46 | $202.01 | +41.8% | +150.1% | +9.5% | +32.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-22 | 2018-12-31 | 90 | $202.01 | $122.11 | -39.6% | -75.6% | -12.4% | -27.1% |
| Rally | 2018-12-31 | 2019-02-04 | 24 | $122.11 | $170.47 | +39.6% | +3,221.7% | +8.7% | +30.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-02-04 | 2019-06-14 | 92 | $170.47 | $85.31 | -50.0% | -85.0% | +5.9% | -55.9% |
| Rally | 2019-06-14 | 2019-07-12 | 20 | $85.31 | $103.68 | +21.5% | +1,067.9% | +4.4% | +17.1% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-12 | 2019-08-27 | 33 | $103.68 | $60.18 | -42.0% | -98.4% | -4.8% | -37.2% |
| Rally | 2019-08-27 | 2019-09-23 | 19 | $60.18 | $76.14 | +26.5% | +2,166.9% | +4.3% | +22.3% |
| Drawdown | 2019-09-23 | 2019-10-10 | 14 | $76.14 | $59.50 | -21.9% | -98.8% | -1.8% | -20.1% |
| Rally | 2019-10-10 | 2019-11-05 | 19 | $59.50 | $72.32 | +21.6% | +1,232.2% | +4.6% | +16.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-05 | 2019-12-06 | 23 | $72.32 | $41.70 | -42.3% | -99.8% | +2.3% | -44.7% |
| Rally | 2019-12-06 | 2020-01-16 | 28 | $41.70 | $52.09 | +24.9% | +640.4% | +5.4% | +19.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-01-16 | 2020-03-12 | 39 | $52.09 | $10.50 | -79.8% | -100.0% | -25.2% | -54.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-13 | 2 | $10.50 | $20.10 | +91.4% | +34,107,630,711,894,792,381,845,831,957,310,603,264.0% | +9.3% | +82.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-13 | 2020-03-18 | 4 | $20.10 | $7.50 | -62.7% | -100.0% | -11.5% | -51.1% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-03-24 | 5 | $7.50 | $10.20 | +36.0% | +537,478,258.2% | +2.1% | +33.9% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-24 | 2020-04-03 | 9 | $10.20 | $8.10 | -20.6% | -99.8% | +1.7% | -22.3% |
| Rally | 2020-04-03 | 2020-04-30 | 19 | $8.10 | $19.50 | +140.7% | +11,496,051.8% | +17.0% | +123.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-30 | 2020-05-13 | 10 | $19.50 | $10.95 | -43.8% | -100.0% | -3.2% | -40.7% |
| Rally | 2020-05-13 | 2020-06-08 | 18 | $10.95 | $31.50 | +187.7% | +265,796,906.0% | +14.6% | +173.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-08 | 2020-07-31 | 39 | $31.50 | $12.00 | -61.9% | -99.8% | +1.2% | -63.1% |
| Rally | 2020-07-31 | 2020-08-11 | 8 | $12.00 | $15.00 | +25.0% | +112,792.6% | +1.9% | +23.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-08-11 | 2020-10-07 | 41 | $15.00 | $9.15 | -39.0% | -95.2% | +2.6% | -41.6% |
| Rally | 2020-10-07 | 2020-10-23 | 13 | $9.15 | $12.75 | +39.3% | +62,002.9% | +1.3% | +38.0% |
| Drawdown | 2020-10-23 | 2020-11-02 | 7 | $12.75 | $9.90 | -22.4% | -100.0% | -4.5% | -17.9% |
| Rally | 2020-11-02 | 2020-12-04 | 24 | $9.90 | $16.94 | +71.1% | +28,046.3% | +11.7% | +59.4% |
| Drawdown | 2020-12-04 | 2020-12-31 | 19 | $16.94 | $12.49 | -26.3% | -98.2% | +1.5% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2020-12-31 | 2021-03-17 | 52 | $12.49 | $29.00 | +132.2% | +5,827.8% | +5.8% | +126.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-17 | 2021-04-20 | 24 | $29.00 | $20.83 | -28.2% | -96.9% | +4.0% | -32.2% |
| Rally | 2021-04-20 | 2021-07-13 | 59 | $20.83 | $41.25 | +98.0% | +1,751.0% | +5.7% | +92.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-07-13 | 2021-08-20 | 29 | $41.25 | $29.65 | -28.1% | -94.3% | +1.7% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2021-08-20 | 2021-10-05 | 32 | $29.65 | $38.60 | +30.2% | +698.3% | -2.2% | +32.3% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-05 | 2022-03-16 | 113 | $38.60 | $14.13 | -63.4% | -89.4% | +0.3% | -63.7% |
| Rally | 2022-03-16 | 2022-05-05 | 36 | $14.13 | $21.10 | +49.3% | +1,555.7% | -4.8% | +54.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-05 | 2022-07-01 | 40 | $21.10 | $12.02 | -43.0% | -97.1% | -7.8% | -35.3% |
| Rally | 2022-07-01 | 2022-08-29 | 41 | $12.02 | $17.09 | +42.2% | +769.7% | +5.4% | +36.8% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-29 | 2022-09-23 | 19 | $17.09 | $13.60 | -20.4% | -95.2% | -8.4% | -12.1% |
| Rally | 2022-09-23 | 2022-11-08 | 33 | $13.60 | $21.26 | +56.3% | +2,931.4% | +3.7% | +52.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-08 | 2023-02-23 | 73 | $21.26 | $15.55 | -26.9% | -66.0% | +4.8% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2023-02-23 | 2023-03-07 | 9 | $15.55 | $18.95 | +21.9% | +25,286.7% | -0.6% | +22.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-03-07 | 2023-05-04 | 42 | $18.95 | $13.90 | -26.6% | -84.4% | +1.9% | -28.5% |
| Rally | 2023-05-04 | 2023-06-16 | 31 | $13.90 | $17.24 | +24.0% | +475.8% | +8.6% | +15.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-06-16 | 2023-09-11 | 59 | $17.24 | $13.05 | -24.3% | -69.6% | +1.8% | -26.1% |
| Rally | 2023-09-11 | 2023-11-13 | 46 | $13.05 | $20.86 | +59.8% | +1,206.0% | -1.7% | +61.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-13 | 2024-02-05 | 57 | $20.86 | $15.69 | -24.8% | -71.6% | +12.0% | -36.8% |
| Rally | 2024-02-05 | 2025-02-13 | 258 | $15.69 | $45.21 | +188.1% | +181.1% | +23.7% | +164.4% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-13 | 2025-08-20 | 130 | $45.21 | $19.29 | -57.3% | -80.8% | +4.6% | -61.9% |
| Rally | 2025-08-20 | 2026-09-01 | 260 | $19.29 | $34.96 | +81.2% | +77.9% | +19.3% | +61.9% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-09-01 | 2026-11-06 | 48 | $34.96 | $27.13 | -22.4% | -73.6% | -3.3% | -19.1% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.