Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 1994-04-07 | 1994-08-11 | 58 | $1.12 | $0.79 | -29.9% | -78.6% | +1.8% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 1994-08-11 | 1994-08-22 | 8 | $0.79 | $0.95 | +21.3% | +43,864.0% | +0.7% | +20.6% |
| Drawdown | 1994-08-22 | 1995-10-24 | 177 | $0.95 | $0.51 | -47.0% | -59.5% | +26.9% | -73.9% |
| Rally | 1995-10-24 | 1996-04-01 | 82 | $0.51 | $0.77 | +53.1% | +270.0% | +11.5% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown | 1996-04-01 | 1996-08-09 | 73 | $0.77 | $0.44 | -42.7% | -85.3% | +1.3% | -43.9% |
| Rally | 1996-08-09 | 1998-04-22 | 397 | $0.44 | $1.52 | +243.0% | +118.7% | +70.8% | +172.3% |
| Drawdown | 1998-04-22 | 1998-09-01 | 80 | $1.52 | $0.98 | -35.6% | -75.0% | -12.1% | -23.5% |
| Rally | 1998-09-01 | 1998-09-09 | 6 | $0.98 | $1.26 | +29.0% | +4,349,274.9% | +1.2% | +27.8% |
| Drawdown | 1998-09-09 | 1999-10-25 | 245 | $1.26 | $1.00 | -20.4% | -20.9% | +28.6% | -49.0% |
| Rally | 1999-10-25 | 2002-05-02 | 605 | $1.00 | $4.15 | +313.3% | +80.6% | -16.2% | +329.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-05-02 | 2002-09-20 | 98 | $4.15 | $2.87 | -31.0% | -61.5% | -22.1% | -9.0% |
| Rally | 2002-09-20 | 2003-01-13 | 78 | $2.87 | $3.75 | +30.9% | +138.5% | +9.6% | +21.3% |
| Drawdown | 2003-01-13 | 2003-03-13 | 44 | $3.75 | $2.99 | -20.3% | -72.7% | -10.2% | -10.1% |
| Rally | 2003-03-13 | 2004-04-29 | 285 | $2.99 | $6.02 | +101.4% | +85.7% | +33.9% | +67.5% |
| Drawdown | 2004-04-29 | 2004-08-19 | 78 | $6.02 | $4.37 | -27.4% | -64.5% | -2.0% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 2004-08-19 | 2006-06-07 | 454 | $4.37 | $10.10 | +131.1% | +59.2% | +15.1% | +116.0% |
| Drawdown | 2006-06-07 | 2006-07-28 | 37 | $10.10 | $7.80 | -22.7% | -82.7% | +1.8% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2006-07-28 | 2008-01-02 | 359 | $7.80 | $16.24 | +108.1% | +67.3% | +13.2% | +94.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-01-02 | 2008-07-15 | 136 | $16.24 | $9.09 | -44.0% | -65.9% | -16.0% | -28.0% |
| Rally | 2008-07-15 | 2008-08-29 | 33 | $9.09 | $12.66 | +39.3% | +1,156.3% | +5.6% | +33.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-29 | 2008-10-29 | 42 | $12.66 | $6.80 | -46.3% | -97.6% | -27.5% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2008-11-14 | 13 | $6.80 | $9.59 | +40.9% | +77,012.6% | -6.1% | +47.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-14 | 2008-11-20 | 5 | $9.59 | $7.04 | -26.6% | -100.0% | -13.8% | -12.7% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-12-29 | 26 | $7.04 | $12.47 | +77.2% | +25,511.3% | +15.5% | +61.7% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-29 | 2009-03-09 | 49 | $12.47 | $7.80 | -37.4% | -91.0% | -22.2% | -15.2% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-12-24 | 203 | $7.80 | $12.72 | +63.0% | +83.4% | +66.5% | -3.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-12-24 | 2010-06-29 | 128 | $12.72 | $9.42 | -25.9% | -44.6% | -7.6% | -18.4% |
| Rally | 2010-06-29 | 2011-04-26 | 207 | $9.42 | $12.46 | +32.3% | +40.5% | +29.4% | +2.9% |
| Drawdown | 2011-04-26 | 2011-09-22 | 104 | $12.46 | $8.95 | -28.2% | -55.2% | -16.2% | -12.0% |
| Rally | 2011-09-22 | 2014-09-10 | 745 | $8.95 | $32.51 | +263.4% | +54.7% | +76.7% | +186.7% |
| Drawdown | 2014-09-10 | 2015-01-15 | 88 | $32.51 | $25.06 | -22.9% | -52.5% | -0.2% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2015-01-15 | 2015-07-17 | 128 | $25.06 | $32.68 | +30.4% | +68.6% | +6.7% | +23.7% |
| Drawdown | 2015-07-17 | 2015-09-29 | 51 | $32.68 | $25.32 | -22.5% | -71.7% | -11.4% | -11.1% |
| Rally | 2015-09-29 | 2017-10-27 | 523 | $25.32 | $33.06 | +30.6% | +13.7% | +37.0% | -6.4% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-27 | 2019-10-28 | 502 | $33.06 | $25.89 | -21.7% | -11.5% | +17.8% | -39.4% |
| Rally | 2019-10-28 | 2020-02-14 | 77 | $25.89 | $39.31 | +51.8% | +292.3% | +11.2% | +40.6% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-14 | 2020-03-23 | 26 | $39.31 | $29.29 | -25.5% | -94.2% | -33.8% | +8.3% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2021-12-07 | 431 | $29.29 | $69.27 | +136.5% | +65.4% | +109.5% | +27.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-12-07 | 2022-05-12 | 108 | $69.27 | $51.44 | -25.7% | -50.1% | -16.1% | -9.6% |
| Rally | 2022-05-12 | 2025-10-21 | 864 | $51.44 | $157.38 | +206.0% | +38.6% | +71.4% | +134.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2025-10-21 | 2026-11-06 | 264 | $157.38 | $105.02 | -33.3% | -32.0% | +9.5% | -42.8% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.