Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1990-04-02 | 1994-01-21 | 553 | $1.78 | $3.31 | +85.4% | +40.2% | +45.3% |
| Drawdown | 1994-01-21 | 1995-03-07 | 280 | $3.31 | $2.22 | -32.9% | +1.6% | -34.5% |
| Rally | 1995-03-07 | 1998-06-22 | 818 | $2.22 | $16.42 | +640.1% | +128.8% | +511.3% |
| Drawdown | 1998-06-22 | 1998-10-05 | 74 | $16.42 | $11.03 | -32.8% | -10.4% | -22.5% |
| Rally | 1998-10-05 | 1999-01-04 | 61 | $11.03 | $16.28 | +47.6% | +24.2% | +23.4% |
| Drawdown | 1999-01-04 | 1999-03-23 | 57 | $16.28 | $11.70 | -28.1% | +2.8% | -30.9% |
| Rally | 1999-03-23 | 1999-12-10 | 184 | $11.70 | $16.24 | +38.8% | +12.3% | +26.6% |
| Drawdown | 1999-12-10 | 2000-03-13 | 66 | $16.24 | $10.88 | -33.0% | -2.4% | -30.7% |
| Rally | 2000-03-13 | 2001-07-27 | 348 | $10.88 | $20.89 | +92.1% | -12.9% | +104.9% |
| Drawdown | 2001-07-27 | 2001-09-24 | 41 | $20.89 | $14.67 | -29.8% | -16.8% | -13.0% |
| Rally | 2001-09-24 | 2001-10-23 | 22 | $14.67 | $19.17 | +30.7% | +8.1% | +22.6% |
| Drawdown | 2001-10-23 | 2002-10-08 | 244 | $19.17 | $6.49 | -66.2% | -26.4% | -39.8% |
| Rally | 2002-10-08 | 2002-12-02 | 40 | $6.49 | $9.37 | +44.5% | +17.0% | +27.5% |
| Drawdown | 2002-12-02 | 2003-03-12 | 70 | $9.37 | $6.70 | -28.5% | -13.9% | -14.5% |
| Rally | 2003-03-12 | 2003-09-03 | 123 | $6.70 | $10.19 | +52.1% | +27.6% | +24.5% |
| Drawdown | 2003-09-03 | 2003-10-24 | 38 | $10.19 | $7.99 | -21.6% | +0.3% | -21.8% |
| Rally | 2003-10-24 | 2004-03-09 | 95 | $7.99 | $9.92 | +24.0% | +10.9% | +13.2% |
| Drawdown | 2004-03-09 | 2004-10-25 | 163 | $9.92 | $7.27 | -26.7% | -4.0% | -22.6% |
| Rally | 2004-10-25 | 2007-04-27 | 644 | $7.27 | $23.55 | +223.7% | +36.5% | +187.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-04-27 | 2008-01-21 | 188 | $23.55 | $13.94 | -40.8% | -11.3% | -29.5% |
| Rally | 2008-01-21 | 2008-08-12 | 144 | $13.94 | $19.58 | +40.4% | -2.7% | +43.1% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-12 | 2008-10-16 | 48 | $19.58 | $13.29 | -32.1% | -26.6% | -5.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-16 | 2009-02-09 | 80 | $13.29 | $17.98 | +35.3% | -8.1% | +43.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-02-09 | 2009-03-30 | 36 | $17.98 | $13.95 | -22.4% | -9.5% | -12.9% |
| Rally | 2009-03-30 | 2015-05-27 | 1,577 | $13.95 | $47.10 | +237.6% | +169.6% | +67.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-05-27 | 2015-09-24 | 87 | $47.10 | $35.10 | -25.5% | -9.0% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2015-09-24 | 2017-06-02 | 434 | $35.10 | $63.93 | +82.1% | +26.2% | +55.9% |
| Drawdown | 2017-06-02 | 2018-04-04 | 214 | $63.93 | $41.62 | -34.9% | +8.4% | -43.3% |
| Rally | 2018-04-04 | 2019-11-14 | 415 | $41.62 | $58.96 | +41.7% | +17.1% | +24.6% |
| Drawdown | 2019-11-14 | 2020-03-19 | 88 | $58.96 | $28.52 | -51.6% | -22.2% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 2020-03-19 | 2020-04-29 | 28 | $28.52 | $42.24 | +48.1% | +22.0% | +26.1% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-29 | 2020-05-21 | 16 | $42.24 | $31.62 | -25.1% | +0.3% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 2020-05-21 | 2020-06-05 | 12 | $31.62 | $40.56 | +28.3% | +8.3% | +19.9% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-05 | 2020-10-28 | 104 | $40.56 | $31.09 | -23.3% | +2.4% | -25.8% |
| Rally | 2020-10-28 | 2021-03-08 | 92 | $31.09 | $49.00 | +57.6% | +16.8% | +40.8% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-08 | 2021-08-30 | 124 | $49.00 | $38.91 | -20.6% | +18.5% | -39.1% |
| Rally | 2021-08-30 | 2022-02-15 | 122 | $38.91 | $49.91 | +28.3% | -1.3% | +29.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-15 | 2022-06-23 | 91 | $49.91 | $37.55 | -24.8% | -15.1% | -9.7% |
| Rally | 2022-06-23 | 2024-11-08 | 612 | $37.55 | $75.81 | +101.9% | +58.0% | +43.9% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-08 | 2026-04-13 | 361 | $75.81 | $38.62 | -49.1% | +14.9% | -63.9% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-04-13 | 2026-11-06 | 149 | $38.62 | $60.40 | +56.4% | +7.1% | +49.3% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.