Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | Annualized | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2002-12-10 | 2005-08-31 | 687 | $1.60 | $7.32 | +358.6% | +74.8% | +34.9% | +323.7% |
| Drawdown | 2005-08-31 | 2005-10-20 | 35 | $7.32 | $5.85 | -20.1% | -80.1% | -3.5% | -16.6% |
| Rally | 2005-10-20 | 2006-03-31 | 114 | $5.85 | $8.87 | +51.5% | +150.5% | +9.9% | +41.6% |
| Drawdown | 2006-03-31 | 2006-11-02 | 149 | $8.87 | $6.06 | -31.7% | -47.5% | +5.6% | -37.3% |
| Rally | 2006-11-02 | 2007-06-29 | 167 | $6.06 | $7.80 | +28.8% | +46.5% | +9.9% | +18.9% |
| Drawdown | 2007-06-29 | 2008-01-21 | 140 | $7.80 | $4.47 | -42.7% | -63.3% | -11.9% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 2008-01-21 | 2008-02-01 | 10 | $4.47 | $5.40 | +20.7% | +11,463.6% | +5.3% | +15.4% |
| Drawdown | 2008-02-01 | 2008-03-11 | 27 | $5.40 | $3.61 | -33.2% | -97.7% | -5.4% | -27.8% |
| Rally | 2008-03-11 | 2008-05-22 | 51 | $3.61 | $5.13 | +42.1% | +468.5% | +5.6% | +36.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-05-22 | 2008-06-26 | 26 | $5.13 | $3.92 | -23.6% | -92.7% | -8.0% | -15.6% |
| Rally | 2008-06-26 | 2008-08-18 | 36 | $3.92 | $5.48 | +40.0% | +952.4% | -0.4% | +40.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-08-18 | 2008-10-28 | 50 | $5.48 | $2.66 | -51.4% | -97.4% | -26.4% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2008-10-28 | 2008-11-06 | 8 | $2.66 | $3.35 | +25.8% | +138,390.3% | -3.8% | +29.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-06 | 2008-12-24 | 35 | $3.35 | $2.16 | -35.5% | -95.7% | -4.1% | -31.4% |
| Rally | 2008-12-24 | 2009-01-06 | 7 | $2.16 | $3.15 | +45.7% | +77,110,292.6% | +7.7% | +38.1% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-03-09 | 44 | $3.15 | $1.80 | -42.9% | -96.0% | -27.6% | -15.3% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-06-01 | 59 | $1.80 | $4.24 | +135.8% | +3,797.8% | +39.4% | +96.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-01 | 2009-07-09 | 28 | $4.24 | $3.30 | -22.2% | -89.5% | -6.4% | -15.8% |
| Rally | 2009-07-09 | 2011-06-01 | 476 | $3.30 | $11.23 | +240.8% | +91.4% | +48.9% | +191.8% |
| Drawdown | 2011-06-01 | 2011-10-03 | 86 | $11.23 | $7.35 | -34.6% | -71.2% | -16.4% | -18.2% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2015-03-18 | 868 | $7.35 | $24.58 | +234.7% | +42.0% | +91.0% | +143.7% |
| Drawdown | 2015-03-18 | 2015-08-24 | 110 | $24.58 | $17.42 | -29.2% | -54.6% | -9.8% | -19.3% |
| Rally | 2015-08-24 | 2015-10-26 | 44 | $17.42 | $21.76 | +25.0% | +258.2% | +9.4% | +15.6% |
| Drawdown | 2015-10-26 | 2016-02-03 | 70 | $21.76 | $15.82 | -27.3% | -68.3% | -7.7% | -19.6% |
| Rally | 2016-02-03 | 2017-01-27 | 248 | $15.82 | $29.89 | +88.9% | +90.9% | +20.0% | +68.9% |
| Drawdown | 2017-01-27 | 2017-06-16 | 98 | $29.89 | $22.39 | -25.1% | -52.4% | +6.0% | -31.1% |
| Rally | 2017-06-16 | 2018-09-18 | 315 | $22.39 | $42.22 | +88.6% | +66.1% | +19.4% | +69.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-09-18 | 2019-01-03 | 74 | $42.22 | $29.64 | -29.8% | -70.0% | -15.7% | -14.1% |
| Rally | 2019-01-03 | 2020-02-13 | 281 | $29.64 | $43.16 | +45.6% | +40.1% | +37.8% | +7.8% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-13 | 2020-03-18 | 24 | $43.16 | $22.05 | -48.9% | -99.9% | -28.9% | -20.0% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2021-10-28 | 406 | $22.05 | $137.61 | +524.1% | +211.6% | +91.7% | +432.4% |
| Drawdown | 2021-10-28 | 2022-06-16 | 160 | $137.61 | $88.43 | -35.7% | -50.2% | -20.2% | -15.5% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2023-09-01 | 305 | $88.43 | $177.58 | +100.8% | +77.9% | +23.2% | +77.7% |
| Drawdown | 2023-09-01 | 2023-10-24 | 36 | $177.58 | $139.59 | -21.4% | -81.5% | -5.9% | -15.5% |
| Rally | 2023-10-24 | 2024-04-09 | 116 | $139.59 | $210.59 | +50.9% | +144.3% | +22.7% | +28.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-04-09 | 2025-04-08 | 252 | $210.59 | $102.37 | -51.4% | -51.4% | -4.4% | -47.0% |
| Rally | 2025-04-08 | 2026-02-11 | 213 | $102.37 | $168.57 | +64.7% | +80.4% | +39.3% | +25.4% |
| Drawdown | 2026-02-11 | 2026-03-19 | 26 | $168.57 | $133.96 | -20.5% | -89.2% | -4.8% | -15.7% |
| Rally | 2026-03-19 | 2026-06-08 | 56 | $133.96 | $226.26 | +68.9% | +957.6% | +12.1% | +56.8% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-06-08 | 2026-11-06 | 106 | $226.26 | $133.98 | -40.8% | -71.2% | -0.4% | -40.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. Annualized compounds that stock return over a 252-trading-day year. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.