Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Symbol
TPX.US
Window
2003-12-18 – 2025-02-14
Min reversal 20%
Regimes
65
Current regime
Rally
since 2024-07-05 · +52.9%
Stock return
+1,811.6%
S&P 500
+461.4%
Excess
+1,350.2%
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Close
Rally
Drawdown
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
TPX.US
S&P 500
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2003-12-26 | 2004-01-15 | 14 | $3.42 | $4.16 | +21.4% | +3.3% | +18.1% |
| Drawdown | 2004-01-15 | 2004-08-09 | 142 | $4.16 | $2.68 | -35.4% | -5.9% | -29.5% |
| Rally | 2004-08-09 | 2005-06-16 | 217 | $2.68 | $5.72 | +113.1% | +13.7% | +99.4% |
| Drawdown | 2005-06-16 | 2005-10-13 | 84 | $5.72 | $2.26 | -60.5% | -2.8% | -57.7% |
| Rally | 2005-10-13 | 2007-10-23 | 510 | $2.26 | $8.75 | +287.8% | +29.1% | +258.7% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-23 | 2008-03-17 | 100 | $8.75 | $2.48 | -71.7% | -16.0% | -55.7% |
| Rally | 2008-03-17 | 2008-03-20 | 4 | $2.48 | $3.05 | +23.1% | +4.1% | +19.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-03-20 | 2008-07-14 | 80 | $3.05 | $1.73 | -43.4% | -7.6% | -35.8% |
| Rally | 2008-07-14 | 2008-09-09 | 41 | $1.73 | $3.01 | +74.5% | -0.3% | +74.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-09 | 2008-09-17 | 7 | $3.01 | $2.23 | -25.9% | -5.6% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2008-09-17 | 2008-09-22 | 4 | $2.23 | $3.36 | +50.6% | +4.4% | +46.3% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-22 | 2008-10-29 | 28 | $3.36 | $1.53 | -54.4% | -22.9% | -31.5% |
| Rally | 2008-10-29 | 2008-10-31 | 3 | $1.53 | $1.87 | +22.0% | +4.2% | +17.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-31 | 2008-11-20 | 15 | $1.87 | $1.30 | -30.3% | -22.3% | -8.0% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-12-05 | 11 | $1.30 | $1.89 | +45.0% | +16.4% | +28.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-05 | 2008-12-19 | 11 | $1.89 | $1.41 | -25.2% | +1.3% | -26.6% |
| Rally | 2008-12-19 | 2009-01-06 | 11 | $1.41 | $1.94 | +37.1% | +5.3% | +31.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-06 | 2009-01-22 | 12 | $1.94 | $1.38 | -28.7% | -11.5% | -17.2% |
| Rally | 2009-01-22 | 2009-01-28 | 5 | $1.38 | $1.88 | +36.0% | +5.6% | +30.4% |
| Drawdown | 2009-01-28 | 2009-03-09 | 28 | $1.88 | $0.94 | -49.9% | -22.6% | -27.3% |
| Rally | 2009-03-09 | 2009-05-05 | 41 | $0.94 | $3.29 | +249.6% | +33.6% | +216.0% |
| Drawdown | 2009-05-05 | 2009-05-22 | 14 | $3.29 | $2.37 | -28.1% | -1.9% | -26.2% |
| Rally | 2009-05-22 | 2009-06-29 | 26 | $2.37 | $3.24 | +37.0% | +4.5% | +32.5% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-29 | 2009-07-08 | 7 | $3.24 | $2.54 | -21.6% | -5.1% | -16.5% |
| Rally | 2009-07-08 | 2010-06-21 | 241 | $2.54 | $8.57 | +237.3% | +26.6% | +210.8% |
| Drawdown | 2010-06-21 | 2010-08-26 | 48 | $8.57 | $6.23 | -27.3% | -5.9% | -21.4% |
| Rally | 2010-08-26 | 2011-07-27 | 232 | $6.23 | $17.31 | +177.7% | +24.6% | +153.1% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-27 | 2011-08-22 | 19 | $17.31 | $12.29 | -29.0% | -13.9% | -15.1% |
| Rally | 2011-08-22 | 2011-09-16 | 19 | $12.29 | $15.17 | +23.4% | +8.2% | +15.2% |
| Drawdown | 2011-09-16 | 2011-10-03 | 12 | $15.17 | $11.66 | -23.1% | -9.6% | -13.5% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2011-11-04 | 25 | $11.66 | $16.73 | +43.4% | +14.0% | +29.4% |
| Drawdown | 2011-11-04 | 2011-11-25 | 15 | $16.73 | $11.72 | -29.9% | -7.5% | -22.4% |
| Rally | 2011-11-25 | 2012-04-18 | 99 | $11.72 | $20.90 | +78.3% | +19.5% | +58.8% |
| Drawdown | 2012-04-18 | 2012-06-26 | 49 | $20.90 | $5.04 | -75.9% | -4.7% | -71.2% |
| Rally | 2012-06-26 | 2012-09-13 | 56 | $5.04 | $8.37 | +66.3% | +10.6% | +55.7% |
| Drawdown | 2012-09-13 | 2012-09-26 | 10 | $8.37 | $6.42 | -23.4% | -1.8% | -21.5% |
| Rally | 2012-09-26 | 2012-10-08 | 9 | $6.42 | $8.17 | +27.4% | +1.6% | +25.8% |
| Drawdown | 2012-10-08 | 2012-11-15 | 27 | $8.17 | $5.88 | -28.1% | -7.0% | -21.0% |
| Rally | 2012-11-15 | 2013-03-27 | 90 | $5.88 | $12.00 | +104.0% | +15.5% | +88.6% |
| Drawdown | 2013-03-27 | 2013-08-19 | 101 | $12.00 | $8.66 | -27.8% | +5.3% | -33.1% |
| Rally | 2013-08-19 | 2015-11-06 | 561 | $8.66 | $19.62 | +126.5% | +27.5% | +98.9% |
| Drawdown | 2015-11-06 | 2016-02-08 | 63 | $19.62 | $12.58 | -35.9% | -11.7% | -24.2% |
| Rally | 2016-02-08 | 2016-09-07 | 148 | $12.58 | $19.65 | +56.2% | +18.0% | +38.3% |
| Drawdown | 2016-09-07 | 2016-10-13 | 27 | $19.65 | $12.20 | -37.9% | -2.5% | -35.5% |
| Rally | 2016-10-13 | 2017-01-05 | 58 | $12.20 | $16.65 | +36.4% | +6.4% | +30.0% |
| Drawdown | 2017-01-05 | 2017-04-17 | 70 | $16.65 | $9.72 | -41.6% | +3.5% | -45.1% |
| Rally | 2017-04-17 | 2017-10-25 | 135 | $9.72 | $16.20 | +66.7% | +8.9% | +57.8% |
| Drawdown | 2017-10-25 | 2017-11-07 | 10 | $16.20 | $12.29 | -24.1% | +1.3% | -25.4% |
| Rally | 2017-11-07 | 2018-01-02 | 38 | $12.29 | $15.47 | +25.9% | +4.1% | +21.8% |
| Drawdown | 2018-01-02 | 2018-04-24 | 78 | $15.47 | $10.01 | -35.3% | -2.3% | -33.0% |
| Rally | 2018-04-24 | 2018-08-21 | 84 | $10.01 | $13.87 | +38.6% | +8.7% | +29.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-21 | 2018-10-29 | 49 | $13.87 | $10.51 | -24.2% | -7.7% | -16.4% |
| Rally | 2018-10-29 | 2018-12-03 | 25 | $10.51 | $12.81 | +21.8% | +5.6% | +16.2% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-03 | 2018-12-24 | 15 | $12.81 | $9.44 | -26.3% | -15.7% | -10.6% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2020-02-14 | 288 | $9.44 | $22.98 | +143.5% | +43.8% | +99.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-14 | 2020-03-18 | 23 | $22.98 | $5.76 | -74.9% | -29.1% | -45.9% |
| Rally | 2020-03-18 | 2020-03-25 | 6 | $5.76 | $11.73 | +103.5% | +3.2% | +100.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-03-25 | 2020-04-03 | 8 | $11.73 | $8.18 | -30.3% | +0.5% | -30.8% |
| Rally | 2020-04-03 | 2021-09-22 | 371 | $8.18 | $47.81 | +484.7% | +76.6% | +408.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-09-22 | 2022-06-16 | 186 | $47.81 | $19.82 | -58.5% | -16.6% | -42.0% |
| Rally | 2022-06-16 | 2023-09-01 | 305 | $19.82 | $46.49 | +134.5% | +23.2% | +111.4% |
| Drawdown | 2023-09-01 | 2023-11-09 | 49 | $46.49 | $36.04 | -22.5% | -3.7% | -18.8% |
| Rally | 2023-11-09 | 2024-03-28 | 96 | $36.04 | $56.40 | +56.5% | +20.9% | +35.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-03-28 | 2024-07-05 | 68 | $56.40 | $44.99 | -20.2% | +6.0% | -26.2% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2024-07-05 | 2025-02-14 | 155 | $44.99 | $68.78 | +52.9% | +9.8% | +43.0% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.