Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 1993-08-19 | 1994-06-07 | 202 | $2.49 | $3.32 | +33.3% | +0.4% | +33.0% |
| Drawdown | 1994-06-07 | 1994-11-22 | 119 | $3.32 | $2.53 | -23.8% | -1.8% | -22.0% |
| Rally | 1994-11-22 | 1997-10-01 | 723 | $2.53 | $6.53 | +158.3% | +112.3% | +46.0% |
| Drawdown | 1997-10-01 | 1998-09-14 | 240 | $6.53 | $4.40 | -32.6% | +7.8% | -40.4% |
| Rally | 1998-09-14 | 2002-04-12 | 899 | $4.40 | $9.79 | +122.5% | +7.9% | +114.6% |
| Drawdown | 2002-04-12 | 2002-07-23 | 71 | $9.79 | $7.41 | -24.3% | -28.2% | +3.9% |
| Rally | 2002-07-23 | 2002-08-28 | 27 | $7.41 | $9.00 | +21.5% | +15.1% | +6.4% |
| Drawdown | 2002-08-28 | 2002-10-09 | 30 | $9.00 | $7.16 | -20.4% | -15.4% | -5.0% |
| Rally | 2002-10-09 | 2007-02-06 | 1,089 | $7.16 | $22.97 | +220.7% | +86.4% | +134.3% |
| Drawdown | 2007-02-06 | 2007-08-14 | 132 | $22.97 | $15.35 | -33.2% | -1.5% | -31.7% |
| Rally | 2007-08-14 | 2007-10-05 | 38 | $15.35 | $18.87 | +23.0% | +9.2% | +13.8% |
| Drawdown | 2007-10-05 | 2008-01-18 | 73 | $18.87 | $13.94 | -26.1% | -14.9% | -11.2% |
| Rally | 2008-01-18 | 2008-09-18 | 169 | $13.94 | $21.64 | +55.2% | -9.0% | +64.2% |
| Drawdown | 2008-09-18 | 2008-10-09 | 16 | $21.64 | $14.74 | -31.9% | -24.6% | -7.3% |
| Rally | 2008-10-09 | 2008-10-10 | 2 | $14.74 | $18.11 | +22.8% | -1.2% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-10-10 | 2008-10-27 | 12 | $18.11 | $12.68 | -30.0% | -5.6% | -24.4% |
| Rally | 2008-10-27 | 2008-11-04 | 7 | $12.68 | $15.52 | +22.4% | +18.5% | +3.9% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-04 | 2008-11-20 | 13 | $15.52 | $9.77 | -37.0% | -25.2% | -11.8% |
| Rally | 2008-11-20 | 2008-11-26 | 5 | $9.77 | $13.87 | +41.9% | +18.0% | +24.0% |
| Drawdown | 2008-11-26 | 2008-12-01 | 3 | $13.87 | $10.53 | -24.1% | -8.1% | -16.0% |
| Rally | 2008-12-01 | 2008-12-08 | 6 | $10.53 | $15.28 | +45.1% | +11.5% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-08 | 2008-12-11 | 4 | $15.28 | $12.11 | -20.7% | -4.0% | -16.8% |
| Rally | 2008-12-11 | 2008-12-17 | 5 | $12.11 | $14.70 | +21.4% | +3.5% | +17.8% |
| Drawdown | 2008-12-17 | 2009-03-05 | 53 | $14.70 | $7.49 | -49.1% | -24.5% | -24.5% |
| Rally | 2009-03-05 | 2009-03-18 | 10 | $7.49 | $9.83 | +31.2% | +16.4% | +14.8% |
| Drawdown | 2009-03-18 | 2009-03-20 | 3 | $9.83 | $7.81 | -20.6% | -3.2% | -17.3% |
| Rally | 2009-03-20 | 2009-06-01 | 50 | $7.81 | $11.60 | +48.6% | +22.7% | +25.9% |
| Drawdown | 2009-06-01 | 2009-07-10 | 29 | $11.60 | $9.03 | -22.2% | -6.8% | -15.4% |
| Rally | 2009-07-10 | 2011-07-22 | 514 | $9.03 | $31.87 | +253.0% | +53.0% | +200.0% |
| Drawdown | 2011-07-22 | 2011-10-03 | 51 | $31.87 | $25.00 | -21.6% | -18.3% | -3.3% |
| Rally | 2011-10-03 | 2012-07-17 | 199 | $25.00 | $33.67 | +34.7% | +24.1% | +10.6% |
| Drawdown | 2012-07-17 | 2013-08-19 | 274 | $33.67 | $26.84 | -20.3% | +20.7% | -41.0% |
| Rally | 2013-08-19 | 2017-11-08 | 1,066 | $26.84 | $50.26 | +87.2% | +57.6% | +29.6% |
| Drawdown | 2017-11-08 | 2018-02-08 | 63 | $50.26 | $39.78 | -20.9% | -0.5% | -20.3% |
| Rally | 2018-02-08 | 2019-10-30 | 435 | $39.78 | $67.62 | +70.0% | +18.0% | +51.9% |
| Drawdown | 2019-10-30 | 2020-03-23 | 99 | $67.62 | $39.78 | -41.2% | -26.6% | -14.6% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-04-17 | 19 | $39.78 | $54.03 | +35.8% | +28.5% | +7.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-04-17 | 2020-10-28 | 136 | $54.03 | $36.58 | -32.3% | +13.8% | -46.1% |
| Rally | 2020-10-28 | 2022-04-21 | 373 | $36.58 | $77.35 | +111.5% | +34.3% | +77.1% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-21 | 2023-03-23 | 232 | $77.35 | $47.32 | -38.8% | -10.1% | -28.7% |
| Rally | 2023-03-23 | 2023-07-21 | 83 | $47.32 | $60.27 | +27.3% | +14.9% | +12.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-07-21 | 2023-11-01 | 73 | $60.27 | $46.93 | -22.1% | -6.6% | -15.5% |
| Rally | 2023-11-01 | 2024-11-27 | 271 | $46.93 | $71.15 | +51.6% | +41.6% | +10.0% |
| Drawdown | 2024-11-27 | 2026-03-20 | 327 | $71.15 | $56.03 | -21.2% | +8.5% | -29.7% |
| Rally Ongoing | 2026-03-20 | 2026-11-05 | 160 | $56.03 | $65.25 | +16.5% | +13.0% | +3.4% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.