Stock Regimes
Major swings and moving-average trends across the full price history, with each period compared to the S&P 500.
Price history
Green bands are rallies and red bands are drawdowns. A swing is confirmed when price reverses by at least 20%.
Versus the S&P 500
Both series are rebased to 100 at the first date they share in this window. Returns are price returns from adjusted closes, not dividend total return.
Regimes
| Direction | Start | End | Trading days | Start price | End price | Stock | S&P 500 | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rally | 2018-05-29 | 2018-06-04 | 4 | $5.00 | $8.00 | +60.0% | +2.1% | +57.9% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-04 | 2018-06-12 | 5 | $8.00 | $2.55 | -68.1% | +1.5% | -69.6% |
| Rally | 2018-06-12 | 2018-06-13 | 2 | $2.55 | $4.00 | +56.9% | -0.4% | +57.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-06-13 | 2018-06-20 | 5 | $4.00 | $2.90 | -27.5% | -0.3% | -27.2% |
| Rally | 2018-06-20 | 2018-07-03 | 10 | $2.90 | $3.75 | +29.3% | -2.0% | +31.3% |
| Drawdown | 2018-07-03 | 2018-08-01 | 19 | $3.75 | $2.10 | -44.0% | +3.7% | -47.7% |
| Rally | 2018-08-01 | 2018-08-24 | 16 | $2.10 | $5.50 | +161.9% | +2.2% | +159.7% |
| Drawdown | 2018-08-24 | 2018-09-20 | 19 | $5.50 | $3.01 | -45.3% | +2.0% | -47.2% |
| Rally | 2018-09-20 | 2018-10-19 | 22 | $3.01 | $5.25 | +74.4% | -5.6% | +80.0% |
| Drawdown | 2018-10-19 | 2018-10-31 | 9 | $5.25 | $3.59 | -31.6% | -2.0% | -29.6% |
| Rally | 2018-10-31 | 2018-12-03 | 23 | $3.59 | $4.90 | +36.5% | +2.9% | +33.6% |
| Drawdown | 2018-12-03 | 2018-12-24 | 15 | $4.90 | $2.90 | -40.8% | -15.7% | -25.0% |
| Rally | 2018-12-24 | 2019-04-17 | 79 | $2.90 | $7.97 | +174.6% | +23.4% | +151.2% |
| Drawdown | 2019-04-17 | 2019-07-29 | 71 | $7.97 | $3.95 | -50.4% | +4.2% | -54.6% |
| Rally | 2019-07-29 | 2019-07-30 | 2 | $3.95 | $4.87 | +23.3% | -0.3% | +23.5% |
| Drawdown | 2019-07-30 | 2019-11-06 | 71 | $4.87 | $3.22 | -33.9% | +2.1% | -36.0% |
| Rally | 2019-11-06 | 2020-02-21 | 73 | $3.22 | $7.59 | +135.7% | +8.5% | +127.2% |
| Drawdown | 2020-02-21 | 2020-03-23 | 22 | $7.59 | $3.36 | -55.7% | -33.0% | -22.8% |
| Rally | 2020-03-23 | 2020-06-02 | 50 | $3.36 | $9.36 | +178.6% | +37.7% | +140.9% |
| Drawdown | 2020-06-02 | 2020-06-11 | 8 | $9.36 | $6.16 | -34.2% | -2.6% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2020-06-11 | 2020-07-17 | 26 | $6.16 | $13.35 | +116.7% | +7.4% | +109.3% |
| Drawdown | 2020-07-17 | 2020-08-24 | 27 | $13.35 | $7.75 | -41.9% | +6.4% | -48.4% |
| Rally | 2020-08-24 | 2020-09-02 | 8 | $7.75 | $9.46 | +22.1% | +4.4% | +17.7% |
| Drawdown | 2020-09-02 | 2020-10-29 | 41 | $9.46 | $5.09 | -46.2% | -7.6% | -38.6% |
| Rally | 2020-10-29 | 2020-11-06 | 7 | $5.09 | $6.34 | +24.6% | +6.0% | +18.5% |
| Drawdown | 2020-11-06 | 2021-01-04 | 39 | $6.34 | $4.80 | -24.3% | +5.4% | -29.7% |
| Rally | 2021-01-04 | 2021-02-04 | 23 | $4.80 | $7.16 | +49.2% | +4.6% | +44.5% |
| Drawdown | 2021-02-04 | 2021-03-04 | 20 | $7.16 | $4.87 | -32.0% | -2.7% | -29.3% |
| Rally | 2021-03-04 | 2021-03-12 | 7 | $4.87 | $5.93 | +21.8% | +4.6% | +17.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-03-12 | 2021-04-13 | 22 | $5.93 | $4.68 | -21.1% | +5.0% | -26.1% |
| Rally | 2021-04-13 | 2021-06-15 | 45 | $4.68 | $9.39 | +100.6% | +2.5% | +98.1% |
| Drawdown | 2021-06-15 | 2021-07-27 | 30 | $9.39 | $6.50 | -30.8% | +3.6% | -34.4% |
| Rally | 2021-07-27 | 2021-08-10 | 11 | $6.50 | $8.18 | +25.8% | +0.8% | +25.0% |
| Drawdown | 2021-08-10 | 2022-01-27 | 119 | $8.18 | $2.23 | -72.7% | -2.5% | -70.3% |
| Rally | 2022-01-27 | 2022-02-09 | 10 | $2.23 | $2.83 | +26.9% | +6.0% | +20.9% |
| Drawdown | 2022-02-09 | 2022-03-14 | 23 | $2.83 | $1.73 | -38.9% | -9.0% | -29.8% |
| Rally | 2022-03-14 | 2022-04-21 | 28 | $1.73 | $3.46 | +100.0% | +5.3% | +94.7% |
| Drawdown | 2022-04-21 | 2022-05-12 | 16 | $3.46 | $1.92 | -44.5% | -10.6% | -34.0% |
| Rally | 2022-05-12 | 2022-05-25 | 10 | $1.92 | $2.41 | +25.5% | +1.2% | +24.3% |
| Drawdown | 2022-05-25 | 2022-06-23 | 20 | $2.41 | $1.87 | -22.4% | -4.6% | -17.8% |
| Rally | 2022-06-23 | 2022-06-24 | 2 | $1.87 | $2.35 | +25.7% | +3.1% | +22.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-06-24 | 2022-07-27 | 23 | $2.35 | $1.80 | -23.4% | +2.9% | -26.3% |
| Rally | 2022-07-27 | 2022-08-15 | 14 | $1.80 | $2.16 | +20.0% | +6.8% | +13.2% |
| Drawdown | 2022-08-15 | 2022-11-01 | 56 | $2.16 | $1.16 | -46.3% | -10.3% | -36.0% |
| Rally | 2022-11-01 | 2022-11-18 | 14 | $1.16 | $2.65 | +128.4% | +2.8% | +125.6% |
| Drawdown | 2022-11-18 | 2022-11-30 | 8 | $2.65 | $2.06 | -22.3% | +2.9% | -25.2% |
| Rally | 2022-11-30 | 2022-12-09 | 8 | $2.06 | $2.78 | +35.0% | -3.6% | +38.5% |
| Drawdown | 2022-12-09 | 2022-12-29 | 14 | $2.78 | $1.61 | -42.1% | -2.2% | -39.9% |
| Rally | 2022-12-29 | 2023-02-02 | 24 | $1.61 | $2.65 | +64.6% | +8.6% | +56.0% |
| Drawdown | 2023-02-02 | 2023-06-02 | 84 | $2.65 | $1.01 | -62.1% | +2.5% | -64.5% |
| Rally | 2023-06-02 | 2023-08-04 | 44 | $1.01 | $1.95 | +94.0% | +4.6% | +89.5% |
| Drawdown | 2023-08-04 | 2023-08-15 | 8 | $1.95 | $1.55 | -20.5% | -0.9% | -19.6% |
| Rally | 2023-08-15 | 2023-09-01 | 14 | $1.55 | $1.89 | +21.6% | +1.8% | +19.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-09-01 | 2023-10-03 | 22 | $1.89 | $1.32 | -30.2% | -6.3% | -23.9% |
| Rally | 2023-10-03 | 2023-11-17 | 34 | $1.32 | $3.02 | +129.7% | +6.7% | +122.9% |
| Drawdown | 2023-11-17 | 2023-12-12 | 17 | $3.02 | $2.22 | -26.5% | +2.9% | -29.4% |
| Rally | 2023-12-12 | 2024-02-09 | 41 | $2.22 | $4.57 | +105.9% | +8.2% | +97.6% |
| Drawdown | 2024-02-09 | 2024-06-14 | 88 | $4.57 | $1.22 | -73.3% | +8.1% | -81.4% |
| Rally | 2024-06-14 | 2024-06-21 | 5 | $1.22 | $2.12 | +73.8% | +0.6% | +73.2% |
| Drawdown | 2024-06-21 | 2024-09-10 | 56 | $2.12 | $1.39 | -34.4% | +0.6% | -35.0% |
| Rally | 2024-09-10 | 2024-10-24 | 33 | $1.39 | $1.91 | +37.4% | +5.7% | +31.7% |
| Drawdown | 2024-10-24 | 2024-11-18 | 18 | $1.91 | $1.34 | -29.8% | +1.4% | -31.3% |
| Rally | 2024-11-18 | 2024-12-02 | 10 | $1.34 | $1.93 | +44.0% | +2.6% | +41.4% |
| Drawdown | 2024-12-02 | 2024-12-23 | 16 | $1.93 | $1.54 | -20.2% | -1.2% | -19.0% |
| Rally | 2024-12-23 | 2025-02-19 | 38 | $1.54 | $2.50 | +62.3% | +2.8% | +59.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-02-19 | 2025-02-25 | 5 | $2.50 | $1.87 | -25.2% | -3.1% | -22.1% |
| Rally | 2025-02-25 | 2025-03-14 | 14 | $1.87 | $2.26 | +20.9% | -5.3% | +26.2% |
| Drawdown | 2025-03-14 | 2025-05-21 | 48 | $2.26 | $1.37 | -39.4% | +3.6% | -43.0% |
| Rally | 2025-05-21 | 2025-06-11 | 15 | $1.37 | $1.81 | +32.1% | +3.0% | +29.1% |
| Drawdown | 2025-06-11 | 2025-08-07 | 40 | $1.81 | $1.23 | -32.0% | +5.3% | -37.3% |
| Rally | 2025-08-07 | 2025-10-09 | 45 | $1.23 | $2.85 | +131.7% | +6.2% | +125.5% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-17 | 7 | $2.85 | $2.26 | -20.9% | -1.1% | -19.8% |
| Rally | 2025-10-17 | 2025-10-31 | 11 | $2.26 | $2.81 | +24.6% | +2.6% | +22.0% |
| Drawdown | 2025-10-31 | 2025-11-20 | 15 | $2.81 | $1.98 | -29.5% | -4.4% | -25.1% |
| Rally | 2025-11-20 | 2025-12-09 | 13 | $1.98 | $2.94 | +48.5% | +4.6% | +43.9% |
| Drawdown | 2025-12-09 | 2025-12-23 | 11 | $2.94 | $2.13 | -27.6% | +1.0% | -28.6% |
| Rally | 2025-12-23 | 2026-01-15 | 16 | $2.13 | $3.10 | +45.5% | +0.5% | +45.0% |
| Drawdown | 2026-01-15 | 2026-06-25 | 111 | $3.10 | $1.06 | -65.8% | +5.9% | -71.8% |
| Rally | 2026-06-25 | 2026-07-10 | 11 | $1.06 | $2.46 | +132.1% | +3.0% | +129.1% |
| Drawdown | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-29 | 14 | $2.46 | $1.63 | -33.7% | -3.4% | -30.3% |
| Rally | 2026-07-29 | 2026-08-04 | 5 | $1.63 | $1.98 | +21.5% | +5.7% | +15.7% |
| Drawdown | 2026-08-04 | 2026-09-28 | 39 | $1.98 | $1.34 | -32.3% | -0.7% | -31.6% |
| Rally | 2026-09-28 | 2026-10-07 | 8 | $1.34 | $1.61 | +20.1% | +1.5% | +18.6% |
| Drawdown Ongoing | 2026-10-07 | 2026-11-06 | 23 | $1.61 | $1.18 | -26.7% | -5.4% | -21.3% |
Stock returns use adjusted closes. S&P 500 is the GSPC index price return over the same dates. Excess is the stock return minus the S&P 500 return.