Predictions

Your Kalshi and Polymarket events. Venues are shown independently — contracts are not assumed to be 1:1 matches. For exclusive growth-band EV math, see US GDP Forecast.

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China / Geopolitics 1 venue(s)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Polymarket binary Open ↗
10.5%
Yes · (bid+ask)/2 · will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027
Bid 10.0% Ask 11.0% Last 10.0% End 2027-12-31 Vol $3.11M 24h $2.6K Liq $245.7K
Rules / resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
China / Crypto 1 venue(s)

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Polymarket binary Open ↗
1.9%
Yes · (bid+ask)/2 · will-china-unban-bitcoin-by-2027
Bid 1.8% Ask 2.0% Last 2.0% End 2026-12-30 Vol $1.08M 24h $3.2K Liq $32.0K
Rules / resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) explicitly announces that Chinese citizens will be allowed to legally buy Bitcoin with yuan (renminbi) from inside China by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the PRC announces this change will take place. Whether it actually does will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the PRC, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
China / Geopolitics 1 venue(s)

China coup attempt before 2027?

Polymarket binary Open ↗
3.4%
Yes · (bid+ask)/2 · china-coup-attempt-before-2027
Bid 3.2% Ask 3.5% Last 3.2% End 2026-12-31 Vol $155.4K 24h $3 Liq $37.3K
Rules / resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
China / Economics 1 venue(s)

China overtakes US economy by 2030?

Kalshi binary Open ↗
16.5%
Yes · (bid+ask)/2 · CHINAUSGDP-30
Bid 15.0% Ask 18.0% Last 18.0% End 2030-01-01 Vol $129.0K OI 42,325
Rules / resolution
If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Space / Companies 1 venue(s)

Starship launches humans to Mars before 2030?

Kalshi binary Open ↗
12.0%
Yes · (bid+ask)/2 · STARSHIPMARS-29DEC31
Bid 11.0% Ask 13.0% Last 13.0% End 2029-12-31 Vol $53.0K 24h $74 OI 10,378
Rules / resolution
If SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Climate / Autos 1 venue(s) Multi

EV market share in 2030?

Kalshi multi Open ↗
Outcome Yes % Bid Ask Vol
Above 10%
EVSHARE-30JAN-10
 85.5% 83.0% 88.0% $2.1K
Above 20%
EVSHARE-30JAN-20
 62.5% 59.0% 66.0% $11.6K
Above 30%
EVSHARE-30JAN-30
 44.0% 41.0% 47.0% $14.9K
Above 50%
EVSHARE-30JAN-50
 25.0% 24.0% 26.0% $9.3K
End 2030-05-01 4 markets
Rules / resolution
If the share of electric light-duty vehicles sold is above 10% in Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Macro / Recessions 1 venue(s) Multi

Which countries will have a recession before 2027?

Kalshi multi Open ↗
Outcome Yes % Bid Ask Vol
Japan
WRECSS-26-JP
 8.9% 5.8% 12.0% $34.9K
United Kingdom
WRECSS-26-UK
 7.3% 3.7% 10.9% $81.3K
India
WRECSS-26-IN
 3.1% 1.4% 4.8% $23.7K
China
WRECSS-26-PRC
 2.5% 2.0% 3.0% $33.8K
End 2027-12-31 4 markets
Rules / resolution
If Japan has two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth between Jan 1, 2024 and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Data from Kalshi and Polymarket public APIs. Not financial advice. Contracts on different venues may use different rules and dates.