Consumer Cyclical Ecosystem
Discretionary spending — autos, retail, restaurants, and travel — that expands and contracts with jobs, wages, and interest rates.
Covered market cap
Ecosystem map
Click a group to open its subsector notes.
Durables
Retail
Services
Automobiles
DurablesOEMs spanning EV leaders and Detroit incumbents; earnings tied to volumes, mix, and incentives.
Drivers
- SAAR / unit volumes
- EV adoption and mix
- Incentives vs. pricing power
Key risks
- Rate-sensitive auto loans
- Price wars and inventory gluts
- Labor and supply-chain disruptions
Retail
RetailE-commerce scale, home improvement, and branded apparel retail.
Drivers
- Same-store sales and traffic
- E-commerce share and fulfillment cost
- Housing turnover (home improvement)
Key risks
- Promotional intensity
- Inventory markdowns
- Wage and last-mile cost inflation
Restaurants
ServicesGlobal QSR and fast-casual brands with franchise leverage and traffic sensitivity.
Drivers
- Comparable sales and traffic
- Franchise mix and royalty growth
- Menu pricing vs. commodity costs
Key risks
- Labor shortages and wage inflation
- Consumer trade-down
- Food-cost spikes
Travel & Lodging
ServicesHotels, OTAs, and short-term stays leveraged to leisure and corporate travel.
Drivers
- RevPAR and occupancy
- International travel recovery
- OTA take rates and marketing efficiency
Key risks
- Recession in discretionary travel
- Geopolitical and health shocks
- Overbuilding in key markets
Companies
Market cap, P/E, and EV/EBITDA come from cached fundamentals when present. Price is not fetched on this page.
| Ticker | Name | Market cap | Price | P/E | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA.US | Tesla Inc | 1454.1B | — | 334.7x | — |
| F.US | Ford Motor Company | 55.8B | — | — | — |
| GM.US | — | — | — | — | — |
| AMZN.US | Amazon.com Inc | 2771.8B | — | 20.7x | — |
| HD.US | The Home Depot Inc | 313B | — | 21.9x | — |
| NKE.US | Nike Inc | 56.5B | — | 18.1x | — |
| MCD.US | McDonald’s Corporation | 181B | — | 20.8x | — |
| SBUX.US | Starbucks Corporation | 116.3B | — | 59.0x | — |
| CMG.US | Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc | 45.6B | — | 33.4x | — |
| MAR.US | Marriott International Inc | 85.7B | — | 34.0x | — |
| BKNG.US | — | — | — | — | — |
| ABNB.US | Airbnb Inc | 104.5B | — | 39.8x | — |
Valuation framework
Starting methods by business type — refine as you add coverage.
DCF
AMZN.US, MCD.US, BKNG.US
EV/EBITDA
HD.US, MAR.US, GM.US
SOTP
AMZN.US, TSLA.US
Scenarios
Directional cases for the sector — not stock-level price targets.
Strong labor market and rate cuts lift housing, auto, and travel simultaneously.
Soft landing: real wages hold, travel normalizes, retail comps low-to-mid single digits.
Unemployment rises; consumers trade down and delay durables and trips.